Will U.S. Interest Rates Stay Unchanged? 🇺🇸💰

Prediction markets like Polymarket now show a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its January meeting. 🪙

The odds of a 25 bps cut have fallen below 1%, while expectations for larger cuts (50+ bps) are nearly nonexistent.

Why are markets so confident? 📊

Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and policymakers continue to signal a cautious “wait-and-see” stance. Fed officials want clearer evidence before easing policy.

If rates stay unchanged, attention will quickly move to the March meeting and beyond. This could dampen short-term optimism for risk assets like crypto and equities, potentially slowing any rapid rally. 📉📈

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