📌 Geopolitical 'arming' of cryptocurrencies
The main shock of the month is Iran's official statement about using crypto for purchasing rockets and drones. This has transformed the digital asset from an 'investment' to a tool for circumventing sanctions in the war.
Consequence👇
The market expects devastating regulatory strikes from the US and EU against exchanges and anonymous coins (Zcash $ZEC , Monero).
📌 Threat of a Shutdown in the USA (78%)
The probability of a government shutdown in the USA by January 31 has soared to record levels. Although the office in Washington is closed on weekends, investors are already pricing in the worst-case scenario.
Consequence👇
Capital flight to 'safe havens'. Gold $PAXG confidently moves towards $5,100, while Bitcoin loses its role as a safe-haven asset.
📌 Military tension and 'black swans'
The possible attack by the USA on Iran and military operations in Venezuela create an atmosphere of global chaos. Polymarket traders are actively betting on further escalation.
Consequence👇
Risk assets (stocks and crypto) are the first to be sold off to secure liquidity.
What to expect in the coming days?
✅1️⃣ Monday — day X. The opening of banks in the USA will show whether the panic will continue. If $BTC does not hold $85,000, the next stop is $80,000.
✅2️⃣ Political bargaining. Any statement about a compromise regarding the US budget could give the market a chance for a 'bounce' (short-term rise).
✅3️⃣ Gold dominance. As geopolitics burn, gold will remain a favorite of major institutions.
Right now, we are seeing not just a correction but a reassessment of risks worldwide. Crypto is being cleansed of 'weak hands'. We wait, we observe 👀⏳