Hedera has fallen over 10% in the last seven days, and this is not just a routine pullback. The HBAR price is weakening, capital is flowing out, and sentiment has dropped to the lowest level in several months.
These signals collectively point to an increased risk of a deeper correction. At the same time, dip buyers and derivative positions provide a narrow opportunity for an increase. Whether HBAR breaks down or stabilizes now depends on some key levels.
Head-and-shoulders pattern and CMF breakdown signal structural risk
The price chart shows that Hedera is approaching completion of a 'head-and-shoulders' formation. This often signals a bearish reversal when the neckline is broken.
For the HBAR price, the neckline is near $ 0.102. A daily close below this level will trigger an expected drop of over 20%, in line with previous breaks from similar formations.
This risk is amplified by the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. CMF measures whether capital is flowing into or out of an asset by combining price and volume. When CMF falls below zero, it signals net capital outflow.
HBAR's CMF has now broken below a descending support line and fallen clearly below zero. The last time CMF fell this sharply was in early December, just before Hedera fell nearly 25%. This shows that the weakness of the price is now supported by real selling pressure, and not just low volume.
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As long as the CMF remains negative and the neckline is under pressure, the bearish structure remains active.
Declining positive sentiment adds an extra layer of pressure.
The weakness of the price is now also reflected in the sentiment data.
Positive sentiment measures how much positive discussion and mention an asset receives across social and market sources. When positive sentiment falls to local bottoms, it often reflects less confidence and a reduced willingness to buy dips.
Hedera's positive sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since the end of October. Historically, similar bottoms in sentiment have coincided with price declines.
On November 9, sentiment hit a local bottom while HBAR was trading near $ 0.17. Over the course of two weeks, the price fell to around $ 0.13.
Today's situation looks similar. Sentiment weakens first, while the price still holds above a key support level. This type of divergence often leads to the price falling to match the confidence level. With both structure and sentiment pointing down, the risk of further decline is now clearly elevated.
Dip buying and derivatives keep the hope of a Hedera rise alive.
Despite bearish signals, there are early signs that support may come back beneath the surface.
Data from spot exchanges shows that net outflow has increased over the last two days after the HBAR price fell nearly 5%. Net outflow occurs when more tokens leave exchanges than come in, which usually indicates buying or long-term holding. On January 24, net outflow was close to $ 1.41 million, and rose to about $ 1.60 million on January 25. This suggests that dip buyers are returning after the recent sell-off.
Derivatives data adds another layer. On Bitget's HBAR perpetual market, total short liquidation exposure over the next seven days is close to $ 7.40 million, compared to around $ 4.28 million in long liquidations. This imbalance of 70% against shorts means that a large share of traders are positioned for further declines.
When short positions are much larger than longs, even a small price increase can trigger short liquidations. These forced buy orders can accelerate the rise. This creates a narrow window where bearish positioning can lead to price increases.
Key HBAR price levels to follow now
The HBAR price now holds the final answer.
On the downside, $ 0.100–$ 0.102 is the most important level. A daily close below this will confirm the head-and-shoulders break and open the way towards $ 0.080, representing a downside of 20%.
On the upside, Hedera must first reclaim $ 0.105 to show short-term stabilization. The real test comes at $ 0.112, which corresponds with an important Fibonacci level and resistance from the right shoulder. A clear move above $ 0.112 would invalidate the right shoulder, weaken the bearish pattern, and likely trigger a series of short liquidations.
If it happens, the HBAR price could rise towards $ 0.128, where previous offers and resistance exist.
For now, the balance remains fragile. Bearish measurements are building up, but dip buying and short positions still leave a small chance for a reversal. The next daily closes will determine which side gains control.
