After many years of ups and downs in the cryptocurrency world, having seen high mountains and crossed rivers, I finally get to shine under the stars and re-enter the martial arts world. The captain will use history as a guide, speak with data, and generously share years of experience in the cryptocurrency space! I hope that each friend is not only a witness to history but also a beneficiary of the times.
Binance founder CZ stated in an interview with CNBC at Davos, 'I don’t trade; I just hold Bitcoin and BNB. Many years ago, I tried trading but suffered losses. Later, I realized that I am a developer, not a trader. Historically, Bitcoin usually follows a four-year cycle. Looking back at historical data, a new all-time high occurs approximately every four years, followed by a correction. However, he believes that this year, with the U.S. being so supportive of cryptocurrencies and other countries following suit, we are likely to see this situation change, and it is even possible to break the previous four-year cycle.'
CZ's judgment on the Bitcoin super cycle is essentially exploring the fundamental shift in the macro narrative framework of the cryptocurrency market. He is not making a short-term price prediction, but rather analyzing whether the core mechanisms driving market cycles are undergoing structural changes.
He first acknowledged the validity of the Bitcoin historical 'four-year halving cycle,' which has indeed provided a observable narrative framework for the market in the past. However, he sharply pointed out that the external macro environment has undergone a fundamental change. The U.S. regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies has shifted from past ambiguity and repression to a clearer acceptance, even actively promoting the establishment of relevant financial infrastructure (such as the approval of spot ETFs). This recognition and institutionalization process by a top sovereign nation injects unprecedented new demand forces into the market.
This means that the driving force behind Bitcoin's value discovery may be shifting from the narrative of supply contraction primarily brought about by halving in the past to the narrative of demand expansion driven by large inflows of traditional capital. These two narratives are not mutually exclusive, but the strength and sustainability of the latter may far exceed the former, thus potentially covering or even breaking the relatively internalized cyclical fluctuations dominated by the former.
His personal strategy of 'holding only, not trading' is highly consistent with this macro judgment. It reflects a profound understanding: attempting to capture short-term fluctuations driven by emotions and liquidity is an inefficient and high-risk gamble; while long-term holding is based on the belief in the fundamental premise of Bitcoin network value—that the rigid demand for non-sovereign, digital value storage means is systematically increasing globally. In the context of sovereign nations beginning to embrace cryptocurrencies, this demand's growth curve may become steeper, giving rise to a 'super cycle' that lasts longer with shallower pullbacks.
Of course, this is just a projection based on current trends. The market always has uncertainties, including black swan events in the macro economy, fluctuating regulatory policies, and even risks inherent to the technology itself, all of which could disrupt or change this process.
