Actually, yesterday at 12 PM on January 25th, the odds on Polymarket for 'Will the US government shut down this month' were directly pulled to 80%, and the market almost defaulted to the assumption that the government would shut down.

At that moment, I was thinking: isn't BTC going to drop again?

But strangely, the market didn't react at all at that time.

It wasn't until early this morning that the price suddenly started to plummet, as if the collective had 'woken up'.

For a moment, I even doubted: am I too sensitive, or is the market really a half-beat slow?

Regardless, one thing is becoming clearer: the odds on Polymarket that are strongly related to macro and policy must be closely monitored in the future.