很大很大的橙子

Fragility is being hurt by volatility, resilience is not being hurt by volatility, and antifragility is gaining from volatility.
I recently re-read Taleb's antifragility. If you put "hoarding coins" in what the book says, it is completely consistent. "Contracts" are fragile and cannot withstand volatility, while "hoarding coins" is antifragile, allowing you to pick up lower chips every time during large fluctuations.
Interestingly, KOLs are also antifragile. The more people who criticize him, the more popular he becomes.
The antifragility of the system depends on the fragility of individuals. In this wave of big drops, the most people bet on ETH's rise because of ETFs. At the same time, this wave of people is also the most fragile (double leverage is liquidated), which also led to the most severe drop in ETH in this wave.
The highest level of anti-fragility is to have anti-fragility. You can understand it as spot selection of coins and hoarding, contracts are to control positions, and the difficulty of copycat is hell-level. Most people who enter this circle only see cases of getting rich by playing memes, but not playing memes and inscriptions. The probability of loss is 80%+. The only people who make money are probably the project parties that issue coins, or the group leaders of CX groups. Similarly, the leeks who play memes are also the most vulnerable.
Many people know the legendary trader hedeng in the currency circle. His philosophy is to always stand on the opposite side of fragility, which also means anti-fragility (position management).
There is no theme, just casually share my recent experience.

KelpDAO rsETH This wave has completely exposed the risks of LRT.
In the past, it was used like ETH, but now the market will price it based on credit assets.
My view: The LRT line is basically half wasted; in the future, the market will only recognize LST. LRT will either survive with high returns or gradually clear out.

Aster's lobster real-time trading has also launched, public address: https://www.asterdex.com/en/explorer/address/0x2fB022Eec84e301eaCb2f7852e03551cc4f335f8

Currently, Aster's CTA factor is consistent with the strategy factor on Hyperliquid, and will change to different styles in the future.

By the way, my Hyperliquid real-time trading address is:
https://hyperbot.network/trader/0x2fB022Eec84e301eaCb2f7852e03551cc4f335f8

Yesterday, I made an options trade and earned over 200,000 USD in premiums.
I didn't plan to specifically engage with Hyper; I just judged that it wouldn't drop in the short term.
If it really does get hit, I'll take it, no big deal.

In any case, this batch of ETH (the Call sold at 5000 last August) was originally planned to be sold; it's just a matter of which reaches my target market value first.

Actually, yesterday at 12 PM on January 25th, the odds on Polymarket for 'Will the US government shut down this month' were directly pulled to 80%, and the market almost defaulted to the assumption that the government would shut down.
At that moment, I was thinking: isn't BTC going to drop again?
But strangely, the market didn't react at all at that time.
It wasn't until early this morning that the price suddenly started to plummet, as if the collective had 'woken up'.
For a moment, I even doubted: am I too sensitive, or is the market really a half-beat slow?
Regardless, one thing is becoming clearer: the odds on Polymarket that are strongly related to macro and policy must be closely monitored in the future.

Happy New Year, family! 🎉
Thank you for the opportunities and challenges brought by the crypto world this year,
and also thanks to @Binance for the consistently stable infrastructure support.
2025 has been quite profitable,
I hope to maintain the pace, manage risks, and go further in 2026.
#BinanceNewYearEve

After hoarding APX for three years, many people think I'm an idiot.
A year later, I will say 'You didn't buy Ethereum, did you?', just like this year when I said 'You didn't buy APX, did you?'
The moment we call each other idiots.

It feels like S&P Global Ratings isn't thinking straight; USDT is actually the most robust stablecoin in reality.

What truly worries me is USDe.
With a scale of tens of billions, continuously offering "principal protection + 6%", it even reached 7% a while back, and when it first launched on Binance, the subsidy was raised to 12%.
At the same time, it needs to reserve significant liquidity for users to redeem at any time.
This year, those engaged in neutral quant strategies are well aware — neutral strategies have gradually approached U.S. Treasuries.
In this environment, how can a protocol maintain "principal protection and interest" at a scale of tens of billions? Where does this subsidy actually come from?
The premise for this model to keep running is to never encounter stress tests.

If one day sentiment shifts, the explosion could be even more exaggerated than the LUNA incident.

The Short Call for 2000 ETH sold on Binance options in August is unlikely to be exercised. Originally, these 2000 ETH were meant to be sold, but now it's uncertain how much longer we have to wait.

However, during the 10·11 incident, this options position was collateralized with WBETH, surprisingly managing to withstand the decoupling risk of WBETH. It must be said that Binance options do have some capability in risk control. #option #币安期权

Aster has needed adjustments for a long time, CZ said that if the price of the coin goes up, the position volume will surge, but yesterday it all fell back, and the position volume hasn't decreased, everyone is trapped.

I don't mean to blame CZ, rather I think there's nothing wrong with promoting my own project, just purely analyzing from a technical perspective. #aster

https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/square/audio/replay?id=29577659791297
This is a follow-up from the last live session on Binance Square Options, starting at 61 minutes and 25 seconds, where I raised the risk control issue regarding WBETH.
My view is: since Binance has allowed WBETH and BNSOL to be used as contract margins, there should be no need to refer to the price index of spot trading pairs; it can simply fix the exchange rate at 1:1.
The reason is very simple—these two assets are essentially internal assets of the Binance ecosystem, which Binance can mint and burn. If issues arise, they can be balanced out through the redemption period. Last night's 'crash-type' decline could have been completely avoided.

I definitely missed out on the BSC meme, this wave is really not my version, completely unable to grasp it.
The only operation yesterday was to hang a portion of BNB to exchange for BTC, but the order didn't get fully executed.
I still remember when SOL was launched by Trump, the community's sentiment was also at its peak of FOMO, those few days were almost the highest point of the exchange rate.
I still have a long-term positive outlook on BNB, but for the short term, I'm subjectively making a currency fluctuation. I might be wrong in my judgment, but even if I exchange for BTC and am wrong, it shouldn't be too far off, right?

Many people say Tom Lee is a madman, that his predictions have no bottom line, and that claiming Ethereum will reach tens of thousands of dollars is just nonsense. To those who say such things, I can only smile: those who don't believe will always get off the train "before tens of thousands of dollars."
I think Tom Lee has no issues at all. Making predictions is inherently about creating anxiety, making people restless, and forcing out FOMO. Comfort doesn't earn money; discomfort is the essence of a bull market. You think he is too aggressive in his predictions? If it were me, I would shout even louder.
Belief is not just something you say. Only by shouting it out yourself will you believe it more and more. This is how I believe: ETH at tens of thousands of dollars, BTC at a million dollars is not about "whether it can happen," but about "when it will happen."
Tom Lee is fine; the problem lies with the Chinese community. The Chinese community lacks a person who dares to shout and set a flag. Everyone is afraid of being laughed at, afraid of being slapped in the face, but no one is willing to admit: true wealth is built on faith.
In the next 10 to 20 years, there will be increases beyond your imagination; whether you join in or not is up to you.

This time in 2049, I really feel that KOLs have made money, regardless of the method, so many people say they earn hundreds of thousands in a year, and I believe it.

Looking back, although I haven't made money directly through KOLs, I've generated a lot of butterfly effects through the connections and resources of KOLs.

Everyone should build their personal IP in the future and strive to become an industry KOL. That's why big shots like Lei Jun and Zhou Hongyi are still working hard to create their personal IP.