$BTC (15m) — BIAS: Neutral → slightly Bearish (range, prioritize sell-high until there is new money pushing up)
Futures CVD (total) = -7.397B → active sell force remains heavy, current rebound has not 'switched sides'.
Spot CVD = -803.046M + Short Spot CVD = -194.559M → spot remains net sell; there is a bounce but not enough to confirm 'spot leads trend'.
Funding 8H = +0.0049 → Long side is paying fees (lightly crowded) ⇒ can easily get swept down if support breaks.
Coinbase Premium = -0.1162 → weak/lacking US spot 'leader', upside is usually hard to sustain.
OI ~ 257.049K → cooling down/going down compared to the previous section ⇒ leaning towards de-risking (no new money seen opening trend).
✅ Scenario 1: Long Breakout
Entry (Stop): 88,050 (waiting for 15m candle to close above the top of range)
Limit: 87,900 (retest held)
TP1: 88,450
TP2: 88,900
TP3: 89,500
SL: 87,520
Conditions to enter Long (must have):
OI ↑ at the same time as price breakout (new money coming in).
Futures Bid/Ask Δ positive increase + Futures CVD stops making LL, starts to pull up.
Spot Bid/Ask Δ positive (spot 'supports' the bounce).
Funding not spiking (not too hot), Coinbase premium returning to 0/positive is ideal.
✅ Scenario 2: Short Breakdown
Entry (Stop): 87,550 (15m candle closes below the bottom of range)
Limit: 87,700 (pullback up fails)
TP1: 87,100
TP2: 86,600
TP3: 86,000
SL: 88,150
Conditions to enter Short (must have):
Futures Bid/Ask Δ negative + Futures CVD continues to make LL (active selling).
OI ↑ when price ↓ (short build) → strong continuation.
If OI ↓ strongly during breakdown → 'flush' (easy to bounce), prioritize quick closes TP1/TP2.
Funding still positive/slowly decreasing (long is still 'stuck'), spot Δ does not support / spot CVD does not bounce, premium remains negative.