The market always operates along the direction of least resistance, and the current situation is experiencing a textbook-level 'structural reshaping'. After experiencing severe fluctuations earlier, both BTC and ETH have entered a critical decision-making zone. This is not just a price game, but also a contest between bulls and bears for the key liquidity pools.
1. BTC: Structural weakness after high-level distribution
From the BTC 4-hour chart, the market has sent a clear signal:
Structural damage (MSS) has become a certainty:
Looking at the upper part of the chart, after the price attempted to break new highs and failed, accompanied by a noticeable MSS (Market Structure Shift) downwards destruction. Highs are continuously lowering (Lower Highs), which means the short-term bullish trend has ended, and the market is currently in a corrective phase dominated by bears.The magnetic effect of liquidity gaps (FVG):
The current price is operating at 87,700 level, and is at a key FVG (Fair Value Gap) area. Above 90,400 - 91,000 range has formed a strong resistance zone (Supply Zone). Unless the 4-hour level can close with volume above 91,000, all rebounds should be seen as a 'dead cat bounce', which is a bear cover rather than a reversal.Key support below:
The last line of defense for the bulls is currently at 86,600 in the vicinity of the dense area of open contracts. If this position is effectively broken, the market will likely look down towards 85,000 to the area of OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) for deep liquidation.
BTC strategy tone: Defense is primary. Currently, there is no sign of a stop-loss, and right-side traders should wait for the test results at 86,600, and must not blindly catch the bottom.
II. ETH: The purple defense line on the edge of the cliff
Compared to BTC, Ethereum's trend is more dangerous, but also more speculative:
The battle of life and death at the 2,900 level:
ETH is currently quoted at 2,902, precisely priced at the 4-hour level's purple demand zone (Demand Zone) edge. This is an extremely sensitive position. From the chart structure, above 3,010 has formed a Strong High, which means as long as the price remains below 3,000, the bearish structure remains solid.Classic OTE retracement logic:
The chart shows that the previous rebound stopped precisely at the Fibonacci retracement's OTE Short area (0.618-0.786), and then started to decline. This trend indicates that 'smart money' is using the rebound opportunity to offload.Downside space calculation:
Currently, the 2,854 area near the FVG is short-term support, but if the purple zone fails, the next liquid target will be 2,750 - 2,772. There is a large accumulation of bullish stop-loss orders, which is the 'hunting area' that market forces prefer.
ETH strategy tone:
Extremely weak. Unless ETH can quickly reclaim 2,950 and hold, the downward gravity remains immense. Spot traders need to patiently wait for structural opportunities around 2,750.
III. Summary and operational suggestions
The main theme of the current market is 'oscillatory cleaning.'
BTC is digesting profit-taking at high levels, while ETH is testing the extreme support below.
For contract traders: Pay attention to the 'false breakout' (Sweep) behavior at the resistance level above, as that is often the best shorting opportunity.
For spot traders: Be cautious with left-side orders; it's recommended to wait for a clear BoS (Break of Structure) signal at the 4-hour level before intervening.
