On January 26, 2026, the global financial market stood at a delicate crossroads.
On one side, Wall Street is holding its breath - this week (January 28-30), Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and other 'seven giants' will intensively release their earnings reports, which will directly determine whether the AI bubble continues to expand or bursts; on the other side, the cryptocurrency market is facing an early collapse - Bitcoin has fallen below the $90,000 threshold, and Ethereum has seen historic levels of capital outflow.
Is this a random divergence or a prelude to a crisis? As a trader, understanding this **'cross-market resonance'** is crucial.
1. The Sword of Damocles Hanging Overhead: Earnings Reports from the Seven Giants
This Wednesday (January 28) after the market closes will be the “judgment day” for global risk assets. Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA) will disclose their earnings on the same day.
This is not just a few financial statements; it is a major test of the AI narrative.
The Trap of Capital Expenditure (CapEx): The market is already tired of hearing “how many NVIDIA graphics cards we bought.” Investors urgently need to see Azure and Meta's AI investments translate into real profits.
Ripple Effect: If Microsoft's cloud growth slows down, or if Meta's spending guidance is too high, the Nasdaq index may face a severe correction. In a highly correlated environment, if the U.S. stock market crashes, the already fragile crypto market has no chance of being unaffected.
2. Crypto Market: Canaries in the Coal Mine
Why is the U.S. stock market still oscillating at high levels while the crypto market has already crashed? Because cryptocurrencies always have the most sensitive sense of liquidity and macroeconomic risks.
The Great Migration of Risk-Off Funds:
Last week, global crypto ETPs saw a net outflow of $1.7 billion, with ETH experiencing a single-week outflow of $630 million. Where is the money going? Look at gold—gold prices have surpassed $5,000 per ounce. This indicates that major funds are engaging in extreme risk-off operations, selling off highly volatile crypto assets and embracing hard currency.Risk-off operations, selling high-volatility crypto assets and embracing hard currency.Macroeconomic Shadows:
The U.S. government is once again facing a shutdown crisis, coupled with news of an escalating trade war between the U.S. and Europe, creating an environment full of uncertainty. Institutional investors, ahead of earnings season and macroeconomic triggers, have chosen the most conservative strategy:liquidation.Internal Troubles Persist:
The regulatory hammer is still swinging. A new U.S. bill proposes to ban interest on stablecoins, directly undermining the yield foundation of DeFi. Coupled with the USMS (United States Marshals Service) wallet theft scandal, it further eroded confidence in the market.
3. In-Depth Analysis: The Upcoming Script
Script A: Tech Giants to the Rescue (Low Probability)
If Microsoft and Tesla deliver perfect results, proving that AI monetization capabilities exceed expectations, the U.S. stock market will lead a return to risk appetite. At that time, Bitcoin may launch a strong rebound based on the support level of $86,000 - $87,000, recovering lost ground.
Script B: Resonant Decline (High Probability)
If the earnings reports fall short of expectations, compounded by the U.S. government shutdown brewing, the Nasdaq will experience a catch-up decline. At that time, the crypto market, which has already lost liquidity support, will face a “second bottoming.”
BTC Key Defense Line: $85,000. Once it falls below this level, it will trigger larger-scale leverage liquidations.
The Predicament of ETH: In the context of continued outflow of institutional funds, even if Ethereum rebounds, the strength will be weaker than the broader market.
4. Clear Wind Strategy: Survive This Week
Before the earnings reports land on January 28, the market is filled with **“noise” and “false signals.”**
Spot Traders: No matter how cheap it seems at the moment, hold your horses. Do not go picking up gold when bullets are flying everywhere. Wait for the market direction after the earnings reports land on Thursday morning (Asian time).
Contract Traders: Volatility (IV) will soar this week. Using options to hedge risks is the best strategy; the risk-reward ratio of naked longs and shorts is extremely poor.
Conclusion:
Gold is rising, U.S. bonds are moving, and the crypto market is falling. All of this tells us: a storm is coming.
At this time, cash is not just a position, but your **“right to survive.”**
