🚨 TOTAL3ESBTC 1M - Institutional Analysis
professional analysis update
The TOTAL3ESBTC index, which represents the relationship between the total market cap of altcoins (excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins) priced in Bitcoin, is currently around $0.3117, consolidated in a compression phase after years of a downtrend, with the main downtrend line (LTB) intact since September 2021.
The monthly chart reveals an increasingly tight consolidation within a range between key supports at 0.25-0.30 and descending diagonal resistances, suggesting an imminent expansion of volatility.
Classic pattern in market cycles where sector rotations are preparing to occur, driven by the search for altcoin outperforming BTC for a true altseason.
This technical structure reflects a prolonged loss of momentum for altcoins over the past 5 years, with repeated rejections at the main descending trend line, without significant breakouts since the peak of 2021. The most recent "altseason", at the end of 2024, was modest, characterized by a rejected pump at the LTB, without the magnitude observed in 2017 and 2021.
From an institutional perspective, this analysis suggests a high probability of a breakout move soon, but timing is the big question. I outlined three potential scenarios:
Scenario A: Immediate breakout above the descending resistance line, driving a quick and direct altseason still in 2026.
Scenario B: Drop to the intermediate support around 0.25, followed by a bounce and bullish reversal between mid this year and early 2027.
Scenario C: Stronger decline to the final support at historically low levels (around 0.18 - 0.20), before finding a bottom and starting a rise already in 2027.
If you are positioned in altcoins now, you are believing in Scenario A; otherwise, there is a risk of seeing your portfolio in the red until confirmation in B or C.
Personally, I am positioning myself for B or C (Doing DCA). Considering the stage of the BTC cycle (with a reasonable chance of a top already formed) and the macro environment of risk aversion, with the federal funds rate in the US around 3.64% (still high in recent historical context, according to FED data) and the ISM PMI Manufacturing at 47.9 for December 2025 (below 50, signaling contraction and negative territory, according to reports from Trading Economics and Investing).
I think we need to see:
1. A completely risk-on environment (Fed funds rate falling), perhaps this will happen by the end of 2026.
2. And also the "Business Cycle" (ISM PMI) performing well in the positive zone (currently it is negative and close to neutral)
This analysis in #TOTAL3ESBTC indicates preparation for an altseason, but timing depends on macro improvements. What I indicate I will do is monitor Fed cuts and PMI for institutional confirmation.
I did this analysis in a few hours of market study and how my mind is thinking regarding Altcoins and technical + institutional + fundamental bias.
I uploaded here the second chart showing the ISM PMI regarding past Altcoin cycles.
It is quite clear that the current moment is not like the altseasons of the past. The high Fed funds rate does not help.
And what do you think? Scenario A, B, or C? Comment here as I will talk to everyone.
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$BTC #Altseason #MarketCap #TOTAL
