XPL has come back from the bottom, but the celebration is still without champagne 🧊💸
Spot analysis | 26.01.2026
Introduction
Plasma has carefully bounced off its historical low. Yes, +8% from the low — sounds nice, but let’s not have illusions: it’s not a bull market yet, just a project that has stopped falling like a stone. Already not bad.
📈 Technicals: suddenly awakened
Here XPL pleasantly surprises:
MACD turned upwards
EMA7 crossed EMA25
The price confidently bounced off 0.1148
Technically — a classic bounce from oversold. But RSI is already 79+, so the market is currently more 'on emotions' than on cold calculations.
🏗️ Fundamentals: boring, but it works
Plasma is not about hype, but about payment infrastructure:
stablecoins
zero fees
partnerships with Aave, Kraken, AliXPay, Oobit
No one here promises 'x100 tomorrow', but they are building rails for global payments. A project that is usually bought after a crash, not at the peak of euphoria.
📊 Assessment: the numbers look suspiciously good
TVL ≈ $7 billion
Market Cap ≈ $300 million
MC/TVL ≈ 0.043
Either the market doesn't understand something, or it understands too well and is already looking at July 2026 👀
⚠️ Risks (and they are serious)
🔓 Unlock 25% of the supply in July 2026 — historically, such events rarely pass without pain
📉 RSI in the overbought zone — a local pullback is quite logical
🧩 Centralization of validators — not critical now, but important in the long term
This is one of those cases where the fundamentals are strong, but the timing is treacherous.
🗣️ Community
No hysteria and moonboys:
bet on utility
understanding risks
interest from developers
A rare case where the community sounds more mature than the chart.
🔍 Insider from the analyst
XPL now is an infrastructure asset in the recovery phase, not a trendy alt. Good for observation and strategic decisions, but not well-suited for chasing candles.
👉 Keep an eye on $XPL or trade on Binance — average positions wisely!
