Ethereum is doing a dangerous dance at $2,916, precisely on the Bollinger Band midline. This isn't stability—it's mathematical tension before a violent resolution. Here's why I'm watching for a breakdown first.
My Analysis: The Math Says "Sell Pressure Building"
1. MACD Isn't Just Negative—It's Warning of Exhaustion
The MACD reading (DIF < DEA) shows more than weak momentum. In this context, it suggests the recent recovery attempts are running out of fuel. Each push higher is getting weaker, a classic sign that buyers are exhausted near this level.
2. The Volume Story is the Real Truth
Current volume at 137K versus a 576K average isn't just low—it's alarming. This tells me smart money isn't buying this "support." They're either waiting or have already positioned for lower prices. When institutions believe in a move, volume expands—not collapses.
3. The Bollinger Squeeze is a Spring Loading
Price compression between $2,890 and $2,936 creates potential energy. My experience with these patterns: they typically resolve in the direction of the underlying momentum. With MACD negative and volume fading, the path of least resistance is down.
My Personal Trade Thesis:
I believe we're seeing a bull trap being set. The market is giving the illusion of support at $2,913, but the technical foundations are crumbling. Here's my expected sequence:
1. Break of $2,890 (likely within 24-48 hours)
2. Quick test of $2,850 as weak hands panic sell
3. Final flush to $2,786 where stronger support exists
What Would Change My Mind?
Only a high-volume breakthrough above $2,936 would invalidate this bearish short-term view. But that would require institutional buying that simply isn't present in the volume data.
Final Thought:
Sometimes the most powerful signal is what's not happening. The absence of volume here speaks volumes. Ethereum isn't being accumulated at $2,916—it's being abandoned by significant players waiting for better prices.$ETH
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