In the period before the token officially lists, the market often experiences pre-market trading (OTC, IOU, futures, early auctions...). The prices during this stage may not be the 'real price', but they reflect quite clearly the expectations, psychology, and positioning of the project in the eyes of smart money.


1. What is Pre-market?

Pre-market is where:

  • Investment funds, KOL, market maker

  • Early investors, insiders

  • Professional traders

Token trading when:

  • Not all supply unlocked

  • Limited liquidity

  • Information not fully public

Therefore, the pre-market price is not just a number, but an expected future valuation.



2. The pre-market reflects 4 core factors


🔹 (1) Confidence in technology & narrative

A project has:

  • Strong core technology (like Zama with FHE, privacy computation)

  • Cycle-appropriate narrative (AI, RWA, Privacy, Infrastructure)

→ The pre-market price is often higher than the average because the market bets on the long-term infrastructure role, not just short-term pumps.


🔹 (2) Quality of the investment fund behind

When:

  • a16z, Multicoin, Pantera, Binance Labs…

  • Long lock token, high valuation

Then the pre-market will reflect:



"This is institutional holdings, not retail speculative trading."



The pre-market price at this time is often anchored at a high FDV level, as the market believes that:

  • There will be a top listing

  • There is a strong market maker

  • There is follow-up cash flow


🔹 (3) Expectations of supply – demand in the early stage

The pre-market reflects:

  • How many people want to buy before listing

  • How many holders are willing to sell early

If the pre-market price:

  • Steady, not heavily sold → early supply is low, holders have confidence

  • Deeply pressed → unlock pressure, a desire to escape early

This is an important indicator to measure hidden selling pressure when TGE.


🔹 (4) Positioning future FDV

In fact, the pre-market is answering the question:



"What tier does this project deserve in the ecosystem?"



For example:

  • Infrastructure tier (L2, DA, Privacy, AI compute) → FDV usually ranges from several hundred million to several billion

  • Application tier → lower FDV, depending on user growth

High pre-market price = the market categorizes the project into the core infrastructure group, not a short-term coin.



3. The pre-market is neither a bottom nor a peak


Important to understand:

  • The pre-market is not the cheapest price

  • But it is also not an illusory price

It is:



The price level balances future expectations and unproven risks.



When listed:

  • If the narrative explodes + FOMO cash flow → the price can be much higher than pre-market

  • If the market is bad + strong unlock → the price can be lower than pre-market

But in the long term, the pre-market is often a reference point for value positioning, similar to:

  • Seed round valuing the company before IPO.

4. How to use the pre-market to make decisions


Smart investors do not ask:



"How much is reasonable for the pre-market?"



But ask:

  • This FDV compared to:

    • Technology?

    • Team?

    • Competitors in the same sector?

    • Market size (TAM)?

  • Compared to projects with the same narrative in previous cycles.

If:

  • Pre-market lower than intrinsic value → accumulation opportunity

  • Pre-market has reflected too many expectations → needs risk management, no FOMO.

Conclusion


Pre-market price is not simply the early trading price, but is:



The valuation belief of smart cash flow into the future of the project.



It reflects:

  • Technology level

  • Fund quality

  • Cycle narrative

  • Long-term FDV expectations

Understanding the pre-market correctly, you will not be swept away by emotions at listing, but see the true position of the project in the larger picture of the crypto market.
#tge #BinanceSquareTalks #JourneyIntoCrypto