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This week (January 20-27), global finance is following the U.S. with many twists and turns, geopolitical + macro + weather triple whammy, the market nerves are about to break.
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⭐ This week #特朗普 2.0 shockwave maxed out: #美联储 27-28 interest rate decision likely to remain unchanged, Powell continues to be tough, but the heavy bomb is the candidate #新美联储主席 !
Rick Rieder (BlackRock/Blackstone's dove king) Polymarket once surged to 48-54%, Trump personally interviewed and praised it as "impressive", could announce anytime next week? The dream of rate cuts is alive again!
⭐ Diplomatic nuclear bombs are being fired: After the 'framework agreement' with Greenland is settled, NATO's tariff threat is canceled, Canada is warned not to get too close to China or face a 100% tariff, Iranian aircraft carrier groups are pressing in + calling for regime change, global trade geopolitics are in chaos.
⭐ U.S. government shutdown expectations: The Minneapolis ICE shooting incident ignited national protests, even the Target CEO is calling for de-escalation, the government shutdown deadline is approaching (probability 77%+).
⭐ U.S. weather: Winter Storm sweeps through 23 states, affecting 160 million people, flights paralyzed + several people frozen to death.
In a nutshell: Crypto and risk assets are swaying with U.S. stocks, but many believe that "the worst noise has already been priced in quite a bit." However, with the new Fed chair + before the shutdown materializes, the market is likely to continue to be lifeless...
Is the worst about to pass? Can we still win? 🫡