Smart money wallets have continued to accumulate Cardano (ADA) over the past two months, even as the price of the cryptocurrency fell.
In contrast to these large holders, smaller retail wallets have actually sold in the past three weeks. This difference in behavior among investors may indicate a possible turning point for Cardano.
ADA whale accumulation contrasts with retail selling pressure.
ADA has experienced significant volatility, just like the rest of the market. In the past two months, the altcoin has dropped by approximately 19%. After an initial rise in January 2026, the price sharply reversed, causing most of the year-to-date gains to disappear.
According to data from BeInCrypto Markets, ADA was around $0.35 at the time of writing, over 2% higher than 24 hours ago. This modest recovery aligns with a broader market resurgence.
Despite the price weakness, on-chain data shows that large holders continue to accumulate. Blockchain analysis firm Santiment revealed that large Cardano holders with between 100,000 and 100 million tokens have accumulated a total of 454.7 million ADA in the last two months.
This recent whale accumulation valued at $161.42 million shows ongoing confidence among these market participants.
A closer analysis of the wallet data shows that whale addresses with 10 million to 100 million ADA have consistently increased their position.
Meanwhile, there was a temporary decrease in demand for wallets with 1 million to 10 million ADA, and for wallets with 100,000 to 1 million ADA, but since January 2026 accumulation has resumed.
At the same time, retail investors continue to sell. Smaller holders with 100 ADA or less have sold 22,000 ADA in the past three weeks, worth nearly $7,810.
Santiment noted that whale accumulation along with retail capitulation could indicate a potential recovery once the market stabilizes.
“When whales buy & retail sells, historically this is an ideal pattern for a recovery once the crypto markets stabilize,” the post stated.
Meanwhile, fundamental adoption remains strong. The number of ADA holders increased from 3.17 million in November to 3.228 million according to AdaStat. This growth of 50,000 wallets shows a steady interest in the Cardano ecosystem.
Cardano's DeFi ecosystem also shows stability. According to DefiLlama, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols is $161.87 million, an increase of 1.53% in the past 24 hours.
The TVL has been around 460 million ADA since October, indicating that capital remains despite falling prices.
ADA technical outlook: what is the next step for the price
The key question now is whether the increasing adoption and ongoing whale accumulation can lead to a meaningful price increase.
From a technical perspective, some analysts see the first signs of a potential trend reversal. In a recent post on X, an analyst noted that ADA is consolidating within a historical demand zone, where there is clearly accumulation.
According to the analyst, repeated reactions from this level increase the chances of a bullish reversal. Based on this setup, the analyst provided three possible price targets: $0.6386, $0.9358, and $1.3285.
“The risk remains manageable as long as the price stays above the support zone,” the analyst added.
However, there are challenges for a bullish scenario in the short term. Another analyst indicates that ADA is still trading below key resistance levels, with two clear sell walls in the chart above.
Sell walls occur when large groups of sell orders are placed at certain prices. This creates resistance and can hinder further increases. As long as the buying volume is not strong enough to absorb this supply, a price increase can stop or reverse.
In summary: accumulation data and adoption metrics support a positive long-term outlook, but ADA must first break above the current resistances for a real recovery.
