Looking at the K-line, Bitcoin's price is still below the downtrend line. Continue to short. Currently, it's a half position short.
As for how much it will drop, it will at least drop to 80,000 USDT.
In terms of the macro economy, there is a Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting on Wednesday, no rate cuts will be made, but the market is focused on the content of the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech after the meeting, whether it hints that inflation pressures continue to exist (= the pace of rate cuts will slow down) or that inflation pressures are easing.
Also, there are quite a few U.S. stock earnings reports being released this week. I expect many positive outcomes.
The trend of the yen's exchange rate appreciation still exists. The closing of yen arbitrage trades may lead hedge funds to sell Bitcoin to repay yen loans. It is reported that hedge funds have borrowed about $380 billion in yen with high leverage. How much of that is invested in Bitcoin is unknown. But the scale is at most a few tens of billions of dollars.
If positions are to be closed, U.S. stocks and gold should also decline. Therefore, the impact of closing yen arbitrage trades on Bitcoin can be observed simultaneously with U.S. stocks and gold.