$BTC
MONTHLY CHART - the 4-year cycle is repeating itself
My best indicator to understand long-term trends about Bitcoin remains the 4-year cycle theory. It has never failed once. Not even last year.
For those who don't know, since 2013 Bitcoin has know 3 market cycles with the following phases:
▪️2 years of solid growth (yellow in the chart)
▪️1 year of bullrun (green in the chart)
▪️1 year of bearmarket (red in the chart)
The bullrun phase ended at the top in October 2025. We are now in the bear market phase until around October 2026.
If we extrapolate from the previous cycle, my bear market target is around 50 000$ in October 2026.
In the meantime, we can and probably will range around 80k for a while before reaching 50k.
This is really the only indicator that never failed me. I'll update this post in October 2026.
