🚨 THE DOLLAR IS BEING SACRIFICED
On purpose.
For the first time in 15 years, the interests of Washington and Tokyo have aligned.
On Friday, the NY Fed called the dealers asking for USD/JPY quotes.
This has a name: rate check.
Last warning before intervention.
The last time the US and Japan intervened TOGETHER in the exchange rate was after Fukushima, in 2011.
Why now?
Japan needs a strong yen to contain inflation.
Trump needs low long yields to refinance the debt.
The two problems can be solved with the same solution: a weaker dollar.
The numbers:
→ $DXY below 96: lowest in 4 years
→ JGB 40 years: hit 4.24% last week: first time since 2007
→ American shutdown: deadline 30/jan
→ Powell: replacement may be announced THIS WEEK
The math:
→ DXY plummeting = "Sell America" coming back strong
→ Every dollar asset needs to be repriced
→ Gold and silver at historical highs is not a coincidence
For Bitcoin:
Short term = risk. A too strong yen forces unwind of the carry trade.
Medium term = bullish.
Weak dollar = the scenario that justifies the original thesis of $BTC .
What to watch:
→ FOMC tomorrow
→ Chair appointment
→ DXY
Faith in the dollar as a global reserve is running out. Fast.
Position accordingly.
