Weak rebound encounters pressure, the oscillating pattern remains unchanged and still adheres to risk control
The current crypto market is experiencing a slight weak rebound, with BTC stabilizing around $88030, up 0.3% in 24H, and after a peak, it is under pressure at the $88800 level and is in consolidation; ETH has also rebounded to $2917, up 0.7% in 24H, but still has not broken through the short-term resistance of $2940. The overall market volume has slightly rebounded, but the rebound momentum is insufficient, and the core pattern of oscillation and bottoming has not changed.
Key influencing factors
Capital flow: BTC spot ETF capital flow has shifted from net outflow to a slight net inflow, providing short-term positive support for the market, but overall incremental capital is limited, and institutions remain cautious, with no trend-setting actions observed.
Macroeconomic environment: Strong employment data in the United States supports a stronger dollar, creating some pressure on cryptocurrencies. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaching, market sentiment is increasingly cautious regarding policy direction, and there is still a willingness to seek safe-haven assets.
Market sentiment: The fear and greed index has slightly recovered from the extreme fear zone. Panic selling emotions have eased, but investor confidence has not fully recovered. Short-term funds are only engaged in swing trading, lacking the momentum to chase rising prices.
Neutral view on mainstream coins/sectors
BTC is currently in a technical recovery phase following a decline, with the core resistance zone between $88800-$89500. A breakthrough without volume is unlikely to push above $90000. The key support is between $86500-$87000; a failure to maintain this could lead to another downturn. ETH benefits from long-term support expectations due to the Pectra upgrade, but short-term institutional disagreements have weakened the rebound, with clear resistance at $2940-$2950 and important support at $2880-$2900, making it difficult to establish an independent market trend. Some ecological sector coins have seen slight rebounds with the market, but the rapid rotation of funds raises questions about sustainability, posing a higher risk for beginners.
Beginner executable suggestions
Position management: Continue to maintain a light position. Mainstream coin positions should not exceed 40%, and remaining funds should be held in stablecoins. Avoid blindly chasing rebound coins and strictly refrain from using leverage or contracts.
Operational strategy: Suspend regular investment and increase operations. Those holding positions should not participate in short-term swings. If a rebound encounters resistance, reduce positions appropriately. Maintain a wait-and-see approach until clear breakout signals appear; do not bottom-fish or chase highs.
Stop-loss and take-profit: Set the BTC stop-loss at $86500 and ETH at $2880. Exit decisively if they effectively break below support levels; if BTC stabilizes above $89500 and ETH breaks above $2950, a slight increase in positions may be warranted; otherwise, maintain the current position.
Information source: Only focus on authoritative market platforms such as CoinGecko, official exchange announcements, and core on-chain data. Filter out misleading information from community hype and avoid being misled by news.
Risk warning
Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and macro news such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions can easily trigger significant market fluctuations. After encountering resistance, there may be a return to a downward trend; global cryptocurrency regulatory policies remain uncertain, which could cause short-term shocks to the market. This article is for market observation reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment decisions should be made independently, and trading risks are to be borne by the investor.