FED DECISION TODAY HERE’S WHAT REALLY MATTERS

No rate cut.

No rate hike.

The real move starts when Powell speaks.

Context matters:

- 2 weeks ago, Powell pushed back hard, saying he’s not being pressured into rate cuts

- BLS inflation data is not showing meaningful cooling

- New Trump tariff threats this month add upside risk to inflation

That puts Powell in a tough spot.

If inflation stays sticky and trade policy adds pressure,

hawkish language is the default.

What that means for markets:

- No clean trend

- Violent up & down moves

- Classic BART formations to shake both sides

Until policy clarity returns, expect chop and traps.

Trade small. Stay patient.