The race for the Fed Chair is heating up — and markets are “betting” on a strong dovish pivot.
🔵Markets are increasingly speculating that Powell’s successor could lean more dovish.
🔵One prominent name is Rick Rieder (BlackRock), who’s been mentioned more frequently given his past support for deeper rate cuts and his criticism of the “dot plot” guidance.
🔵In rate futures/SOFR derivatives and options, positioning for a more aggressive easing path has picked up noticeably, with both trading volume and open interest rising.
🔵While the swaps market is pricing only limited cuts, options traders are pricing in tail risk that rates could fall to around ~1.5% by year-end.
Prediction platforms show his odds improving, reinforcing expectations of a softer Fed stance.
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