January 28th, Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,254 yuan/ton, intraday peaked at 103,600 yuan, just a step away from the historical peak! LME copper price has firmly stabilized at a high of 13,000 USD/ton, hailed by the market as the 'new oil of the AI era,' and is staging a price surge that has garnered nationwide attention. However, behind this frenzy is a sharp opposition among institutions: some call for a target price of 13,000 USD, while others warn of an imminent correction. How should ordinary investors decide?
📈 How solid is the price increase logic? The three major driving forces simply cannot stop.
1. Supply side shows red lights: global copper mine growth is only 1.6%, labor negotiations in Chile and Peru continue to disrupt, and Chinese smelters have collectively reduced production due to processing fees dropping to -44.5 USD/ton, with visible inventory hitting a 5-year low, the tight spot market situation has no solution in the short term.
2. Demand side is boosted: new energy vehicles and photovoltaic energy storage are using an additional 700,000 tons of copper annually, and the construction of AI data centers is further fueling the demand—each super-large data center uses as much copper as 100,000 electric vehicles, and the explosive structural demand cannot be stopped.
3. Macro environment is warming up: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are rising, the US dollar is weakening, combined with the resonance of the 'dual easing' policy between China and the US, capital is flooding into commodities, and the financial attributes of copper have been completely ignited.
⚠️ Has the risk detonated? These signals cannot be ignored.
• Downstream enterprises can't hold on: the home appliance industry is the first to be affected, every increase of $1,000 in copper prices reduces the gross profit margin of air conditioning companies by 1.2 percentage points, small and medium-sized enterprises have cut production by 18%, and the trend of 'aluminum replacing copper' is accelerating.
• Institutional disagreements are heating up: Citigroup and UBS have set a bullish target of $13,000/ton, while Goldman Sachs warns that 'the current price increase is due to inventory mismatch, and there may be a surplus of 160,000 tons in 2026', with a fierce battle between bulls and bears imminent.
• Policy variables are hard to predict: the implementation of US tariff policies may trigger a global copper trade restructuring, and the domestic real estate recovery falling short of expectations will also drag down traditional copper demand.
💡 How should ordinary people respond? Understand these 3 points to avoid pitfalls.
1. Essential enterprises: quickly lock in futures hedging! The hedging participation rate of A-share non-ferrous metal companies is over 90%, and using derivatives to hedge costs is the way to go; don't wait until raw material supply is cut off to panic.
2. Investors: closely watch the key point of 105,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and follow up with light positions if it breaks; in the medium to long term, pay attention to the supply-demand gap, as the world may be short of 100,000 tons in 2026, and it's more prudent to layout new energy and leading copper processing companies during corrections.
3. Consumers: Don't delay on essential appliances and renovations! High copper prices may persist until the second half of 2026, so early procurement saves money and avoids further cost transfer.
🗣️ Discussion topic: Do you think copper prices can rise to 120,000 yuan/ton?
