What is the core driving force behind the surge in gold and silver? Why now?
If past fluctuations were 'waves,' the current market is a 'tsunami.' Its core driving force is not a single factor but the confluence of three forces:
• The 'crack' in the global credit system (core underlying logic): For a long time, the global reserve system centered around U.S. Treasuries has been undergoing a reputation reconstruction. With the continuous expansion of U.S. Treasury debt and the 'de-dollarization' wave triggered by geopolitical factors, central banks (especially those of China, India, and other countries) have transitioned from mere holders of gold to 'gold seekers.' When sovereign nations begin to significantly convert their foreign exchange reserves into physical gold, it is the most straightforward 'vote of no confidence' against fiat currency.
• The 'vicious cycle' of inflation and debt: Although the Federal Reserve tries to control interest rates, the tariff policies and global supply chain restructuring since 2025 have caused persistent secondary inflation. Investors realize that in a high-debt environment, it is difficult for real interest rates to remain positive for long. Gold, as the ultimate asset that 'does not yield but resists inflation,' has seen its pricing power shift from financial derivatives back to physical demand.
• Why 'now'? This is a critical point effect. After gold broke through $4,000 at the end of 2025, it triggered a massive short covering and a crazy influx of trend-following CTA funds. Additionally, the sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions (such as U.S.-Europe trade frictions and ongoing turmoil in the Middle East) at the beginning of 2026 has shifted the market from 'allocating gold' to 'panic hoarding of gold.'