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Vitalik’s “Anti-Crazy Mode” Nets $70,000 on Polymarket

Vitalik Buterin, the Co-Founder of Ethereum, revealed he earned $70,000 on the prediction market Polymarket last year, investing approximately $440,000. The gain came from betting against markets driven by irrational hype, a strategy he calls “anti-crazy mode.”

In a recent interview in Chiang Mai, Thailand, Vitalik Buterin explained how he spotted markets getting too much hype and used that to make smart bets. He also said that while platforms like Polymarket work well, they still face rules and design problems that need fixing.

Besides personal profit, Vitalik highlighted broader issues in crypto applications. “Over the past year, Ethereum has made major progress in scaling technology. Our gas capacity has increased from 30 million to 60 million, and this year’s goal is to reach 300 million,” he said. zkEVMs have launched successfully, and wallet infrastructure has improved, enabling smoother access for users. However, he pointed out that financial success in crypto often overshadows meaningful application development.

The limits of prediction markets
Polymarket allows users to bet on future events, including political outcomes, economic indicators, and weather patterns. However, Vitalik noted many markets focus on short-term predictions like sports or hourly price movements. “I think these short-term bets don’t have much social significance in the long run. In theory, the prediction market is a successful tool (because it works), but we need more meaningful applications,” he explained. He expressed interest in long-term incentive models such as Robin Hanson’s Futarchy, which MetaDAO is experimenting with.