I am waiting. 🫢😌🤨😲

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady. No drama, no surprise pivot. After three cuts last year, the current level is restrictive enough to keep inflation contained without snapping the economy in half. Inflation remains above 2%, unemployment is hovering around 4.4%, and growth hasn’t collapsed. There’s simply nothing urgent forcing the Fed’s hand right now.
When Jerome Powell steps up, the tone will be familiar: patient, data-dependent, and deliberately non-committal. The message won’t be that rate cuts are off the table — but that the bar to justify them is now much higher. The Fed isn’t hunting for “good signs.” It wants clear, sustained proof that inflation is cooling meaningfully or that the labor market is weakening in a visible way. Without that, serious discussion likely slips into the second half of the year.
The reason for this stubborn stance is simple: cutting too early is the real risk. If inflation re-accelerates, long-term yields jump, the dollar weakens, commodities reprice higher, and inflation expectations spiral out of control. One mistake here would be extremely costly. From the Fed’s perspective, doing nothing is safer than acting prematurely.
A common misunderstanding is that “no cuts” means “no tightening.” In reality, the opposite can be true. As inflation slowly eases while nominal rates stay fixed, real rates creep higher on their own. Monetary policy continues to tighten passively — without the Fed lifting a finger.
Powell will also reiterate the Fed’s independence. Decisions are driven by economic data, not politics. This message is aimed squarely at the bond market and at preserving institutional credibility. Confidence in the system matters as much as any single rate decision.
For asset markets, this meeting doesn’t unlock new liquidity. Equities may see short-term volatility, but they’ll quickly revert to fundamentals and earnings. Bond yields have little reason to fall meaningfully unless the Fed clearly opens the door to cuts. The U.S. dollar has no catalyst to break down. And crypto shouldn’t expect a push from cheaper money.
In short, this is a holding-pattern meeting. No easing, no rescue, no hidden dovish signal. Just patience — and a reminder that the era of effortless liquidity isn’t back yet.
This article is for informational purposes only. The information provided is not investment advice.
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