Ethereum hits $3000, but the market is clearly 'hesitant'
Recently, Ethereum has been repeatedly trying to stay above the $3000 mark, but the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains relatively cold. Price trends show that buyers are indeed defending at critical positions, but the problem is that the sustainability of the rise is clearly insufficient. Each rebound seems a bit powerless.
This state of 'not being able to go up or dare to drop' appears against the backdrop of high leverage and severe fluctuations in derivatives, making the short-term market particularly sensitive.#ETH
The leverage ratio is at a high level, and risks are accumulating
CryptoQuant's latest report indicates that Ethereum's estimated leverage on Binance is still close to historical highs, with a 7-day moving average around 0.632. This means that a large number of positions in the market rely on leverage support, and the price's ability to withstand sudden market movements is decreasing.
In simple terms, as long as the price experiences significant fluctuations, it may trigger a chain liquidation. This is also why the market appears very 'stable', but in reality, there are turbulent undercurrents.
The buy-sell ratio has experienced a sharp reversal, indicating extremely unstable sentiment.
Order flow data also confirms this. On January 25, the trader buy-sell ratio briefly fell to 0.86, hitting a new low since September last year, with selling pressure clearly dominating. But shortly thereafter, the indicator quickly rebounded to 1.16, even setting a new intraday high since 2021.
This extreme reversal indicates that the current market is more driven by short positions rather than sustained accumulation based on long-term confidence. The speed of emotional switching is too fast, which itself is an unstable signal.
The price movement is very 'constrained', but the risk has not disappeared.
In the context of high leverage amplifying volatility, Ethereum's price appears unusually restrained. Since failing to break through the historical high, ETH has entered a prolonged correction, currently oscillating around $2800.
This position has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure and indeed provided support in the short term, but the issue is that each rebound lacks follow-up, and momentum quickly fades. The market is oscillating back and forth between defensive buyers and aggressive short-term traders.
Leverage + compressed movement is the most dangerous combination.
The current stage is sensitive primarily for two reasons: prices are compressed within a narrow range, while leverage levels remain high. In this structure, even modest price fluctuations could trigger severe reactions in the derivatives market.
The frequent reversals in the buy-sell ratio indicate that positions are switching rapidly, rather than accumulating gradually. This type of movement is often more likely to lead to amplified volatility rather than forming a clear trend.
What does the technical perspective say? The key range is already quite clear.
From a daily structure perspective, ETH is currently hovering around $3000, which is both a psychological threshold and a significant technical resistance. The price remains below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, with both moving averages trending downward, and short- to mid-term momentum still weak.
The 200-day moving average is around $3500, clearly indicating that since breaking below $4000, the overall trend has shifted from a one-sided rise to a wide-ranging consolidation.
Currently, Ethereum mainly operates within the range of $2800 to $3400. The key support line is below $2800; as long as it holds, the market can still be seen as consolidating; once it effectively breaks down, the $2500–$2600 area will become the next stop. Conversely, if it wants to genuinely improve the structure, ETH needs to at least regain the $3300–$3400 range.
To sum it up in one sentence.
Ethereum right now lacks direction despite having support; it lacks sustained confidence despite active trading. Before clear macroeconomic factors, capital, or fundamental catalysts emerge, high leverage coupled with unstable order flow remains a sword hanging over the market.