Core Conclusion: The Federal Reserve's hawkish decision suppresses the market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both breaking key support levels. The technical structure has weakened in the short term, and the market has shifted from offense to defense. The strategy is primarily cautious observation and defense, waiting for stabilization signals, with evening inflation data being an important catalyst.
1. Overall Market Overview
Affected by the Federal Reserve's hawkish speeches, risk assets have broadly declined, and the digital currency market has retraced across the board. Core cryptocurrencies have all broken recent key support levels, with sentiment shifting rapidly from optimism to caution.
- Bitcoin: Fell from a high of $90,587 to a low of $87,650, currently reported around $87,800, breaking key support at $88,000;
- Ethereum: Pulled back from $3044, lowest at $2943, currently reported around $2960, breaking the key support at $2950;
- Capital and sentiment: BTC ETF experienced a net inflow of $9208.95 million against the trend, ETH ETF had a net outflow of $2.1 million; the fear and greed index fell to 32, leaning towards caution;
- Macro Core: The Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, clearly not in a hurry to cut interest rates, which boosts the dollar while suppressing liquidity easing expectations, becoming the market's core negative.
II. Core Support Resistance and Stabilization Key
In the short term, focus on observing the defense strength of the core support area below; if it fails, it will further decline; if it holds, maintain a weak oscillation:
- Bitcoin: Core support at $86000-87000, intraday resonance support at $87200-87600;
- Ethereum: Core support at $2850-2950, key intraday support at $2940-2950 (20-day moving average resonance).
III. Bitcoin (BTC) intraday trends and operating strategies
1. Technical formation: A double top forms on the hourly chart above $90000, effectively breaking the key support at $88000 (which has now turned into resistance), with a bearish short-term trend, and short selling momentum not fully released;
2. Key levels: Upper resistance at $88800-89500, breaking through can test the $90000 integer level; lower support at $87200-87600, if lost, it will test $86000-87000;
3. Operating strategy: Under a weak oscillation pattern, mainly cautious observation, testing with light positions relying on support, strictly prohibiting blind bottom fishing, and paying attention to stabilization signals at support levels and the impact of evening inflation data.
IV. Ethereum (ETH) intraday trends and operating strategies
1. Technical formation: Highly correlated with BTC, relative strength weaker, peaking at $3037 without breaking the previous high of $3044, subsequently following the breakdown of support, with no independent breakthrough momentum;
2. Key levels: Upper resistance at $2980-3000, breaking through can test the $3030-3050 high range; lower support at $2940-2950, if lost, it will test the previous consolidation platform of $2880-2920;
3. Operating strategy: Maintain a weak oscillation, closely monitor key support defense and BTC linkage effects, be wary of any cryptocurrency breaking through volume triggering trend movements.
V. General Operating Principles
1. The overall strategy shifts from offense to defense, patiently waiting for the market to digest negative news and show clear signs of stabilization, avoiding blind operations during fluctuations;
2. Adhere to long-term value judgments, traversing macroeconomic cycle fluctuations;
3. Market conditions change rapidly; operations must carefully include stop-loss and take-profit measures, securing profits.
Note: There may be delays in the article's delivery, and the strategy suggestions are for reference only.
