I want to share an additional perspective that lately many people have been paying less attention to, but it is very important in the current on-chain picture.
Charles Edwards (founder of Capriole Investments) just emphasized that the hashrate of Bitcoin has decreased by about 40% compared to the ATH peak. This is the largest miner capitulation since 2021, meaning many miners, especially those with high costs, are being forced to shut down or leave the game. When prices do not rise fast enough while electricity, operating, and borrowing costs remain high, miner 'capitulation' is hard to avoid.
The direct consequence is that the energy value / marginal cost of mining BTC is decreasing. This may sound negative, but in fact, in history, significant miner capitulation phases often occur near the bottom of the cycle or at the end of a strong correction phase. The market needs to eliminate weak players and inefficient mining models before entering a more sustainable phase.
Another noteworthy point is that as crypto mining profits are no longer as attractive as before, some large-scale miners are beginning to shift to other areas such as AI compute, data centers, or providing energy infrastructure. This indicates that the BTC mining industry is gradually becoming 'professionalized' and is no longer a mass-market game like previous cycles.
In summary, from my perspective, a sharp decrease in hashrate is not necessarily a bad signal for Bitcoin, but rather a sign of necessary cleansing. History shows that after such capitulation phases, the market often requires more time to accumulate, but the long-term foundation becomes stronger $BTC
