🔸Reasons the market reacted to Mr. Powell's statements
🔸Policy
- Current interest rates are appropriate for the state of the economy.
- The Fed is actively standing still to review new data.
-> Mr. Powell stated that the Fed is a long way from letting the market or "any political forces" influence its decisions.
🔸Economy
- The risks of rising inflation and declining employment have diminished, but are not completely gone.
- The number of new jobs is nearly zero.
- GDP for the year is above 2%
-> Mr. Powell is confident there will be no hard landing.
🔸Inflation
- Long-term inflation expectations are unchanged.
- Inflation due to tariffs is temporary, expected to decrease from mid-2026.
-> There is no reason to rush to loosen.
🔸USD - Gold - Silver
- Mr. Powell avoided commenting on the USD, "that is the responsibility of the Treasury Department."
- The Fed "does not see data" indicating that risk-averse capital is leaving the USD.
- The rise in gold and silver prices is not linked by the Fed to macroeconomic instability.
🔸Mr. Powell did not answer about staying at the Fed after his term -> implicitly understood to mean he will stay. He also emphasized that the Lisa Cook issue is a key problem regarding the independence of Fed personnel. Overall, he is quite hawkish, optimistic about the U.S. economy, and has not hinted at any changes in the interest rate path.
