The latest developments regarding the situation in Iran have reached the highest level of tension in recent years. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict from January 29 to 30, 2026, directly triggered turmoil in global markets.
Here are several key news points that led to the market's 'flash crash' and increased volatility:
1. Trump issues threat of 'rapid violence' strikes
* Continued pressure: President Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran through social media and public speeches over three consecutive days from January 26 to 28, demanding that they return to the negotiating table to discuss their nuclear program.
* 'Speed and violence': Trump publicly stated that the US Navy fleet deployed to the Middle East (including the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group) is ready to execute strike missions 'with extreme speed and violence' at any time.
2. Iran's 'finger on the trigger'
* Lights out across the fleet: Reports indicate that the US Navy fleet has entered a 'lights out' state and interrupted communications, a mobilization with significant combat implications that has intensified market panic.
* Strait of Hormuz exercises: Iran has announced that it will hold live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz next week and has warned maritime vessels. As about 20% of the world's oil passes through this strait, oil prices surged instantly (Brent crude once broke $71).
* Official statement: Iranian First Vice President Mohsen Rezaei stated that Iran does not seek to start a war but is fully prepared for self-defense, saying, 'The outcome of the war will not be determined by the enemy.'
3. Resonance of Iran's internal political and economic crisis
* Currency collapse: The Iranian rial's exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen to a historic low (around 1:1,480,000), triggering severe domestic inflation.
* Large-scale protests: Due to economic pressure, protests and strikes by merchants have erupted in 26 provinces across Iran, with parts of the Grand Bazaar in Tehran closed. The Iranian government has characterized this as a 'hybrid war' instigated by external forces.
4. International mediation attempts
* Multilateral diplomacy: Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian urgently called foreign ministers from Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and other countries on the 29th, urging all parties to exercise restraint.
* Trip to Turkey: Amir-Abdollahian plans to visit Turkey today (January 30) in an attempt to find ways to cool tensions through diplomatic channels.
Summary of the impact on the market:
* Gold: After spiking to $5,600 at the onset of 'clouds of war', excessive risk aversion and margin increases by exchanges (to prevent extreme risks) led to some profit-taking, causing a flash crash.
* Crude oil: The extremely high geopolitical premium has pushed Brent crude oil to its highest point since 2024.
* Safe-haven assets: With signals like 'lights out across the fleet' coming from the frontlines, funds rapidly switched between 'extreme panic' and 'liquidity realization', resulting in the flash crash phenomenon you see.
