🚨 DO NOT BUY A HOUSE THIS YEAR — UNLESS YOU’RE ALREADY RICH

If you’re not a billionaire, rent.

Yes, rent.

Buying a house right now is how average people lock themselves into permanent financial mediocrity.

If you want to buy your first home, wait for a 2008-style housing crash.

I’ve seen every cycle — the 2008 collapse, the 2020 blow-off top, and everything in between.

Look at the chart.

The last housing bubble peaked around 266 in 2006.

If you think today’s market is “stable,” you’re not early — you’re late and in denial.

This market isn’t healthy.
It’s frozen.

WHY BUYING IN 2026 IS A TRAP

Redfin data shows 36.8% more sellers than buyers.

Demand is at its weakest level since the 2020 lockdowns.

That’s not a pullback.

👉 That’s a market that has lost momentum.

Most homeowners are locked into ~3% mortgages.
30-year fixed rates are stuck around 6.5%.

Translation?

👉 Nobody can move. Nobody can transact.

There is no real price discovery.

You’re paying full sticker price for an illiquid asset that hasn’t been stress-tested by real volume.

Buying now means:
– Max monthly payment
– Minimal upside
– Peak duration risk

If you’re levered 5:1 on a house that goes sideways for years while you pay 6.5% interest, you’re not “building equity.”

👉 You’re slowly bleeding capital.

Homeownership under these conditions is not an investment.
It’s a liability dressed up as a dream.

THE REAL MACRO PLAY (NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR THIS)

Wait for late 2026 into 2027.

That’s when the “we’ll just wait it out” crowd runs into reality:
– Divorce
– Job loss
– Relocation
– Retirement
– Cash-flow stress

Forced sellers will appear all at once, in a cooling economy.

That’s when prices actually reset.

That’s when patience gets paid.

IF YOU ABSOLUTELY MUST BUY

Buy like a predator, not a consumer:

– Assume your income drops 20%
– Keep LTV conservative (negative equity kills optionality)
– Only buy if you can survive 10 years of flat or declining prices

If that scares you, you can’t afford the house.