🚨 BREAKING UPDATE
A partial US government shutdown has officially kicked in at 12:01 AM ET today (January 31, 2026), as funding lapsed for several major agencies overnight.
Prediction markets were pricing it high right up to the deadline—Polymarket and Kalshi hovered around 85-95% odds in the final hours, with massive trading volume reflecting the tension. (Some bets even spiked to 90%+ as negotiations dragged.)
This stems from the fiscal year 2026 funding cliff that hit after last fall's record 43-day shutdown. Congress passed some bills earlier, but the remaining package (covering Defense, HHS, Labor, Treasury, State, Transportation-HUD, and others) couldn't clear both chambers in time—Senate approved a version late Friday, but the House (in recess) won't vote until Monday at the earliest.
Here's what we're dealing with right now:
– Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Jobs Report: BLS (under Labor Dept.) is impacted—expect delays or a blackout if this drags past a few days. Markets hate uncertainty here.
– Inflation Data (CPI/PPI): BLS handles these too, so key price gauges could be postponed, leaving traders blind on whether inflation's cooling or heating up.
– Other ripple effects: Partial furloughs at affected agencies (essential workers like some military/DOD ops continue unpaid), potential slowdowns in IRS processing (tax season vibes incoming), and disruptions to programs under HHS, Education, etc.
The good news? This looks short-lived—Senate's deal funds most agencies through September, with a 2-week stopgap for DHS (tied to ongoing immigration enforcement debates). House expected to pass it early next week, reopening things quickly.
Stay frosty and positioned—volatility incoming, but resolution seems close. 🥶 $SYN $ENSO $BULLA
