January 30th core reasons for the crash of gold and silver, why following news is not as good as looking at K-line, and why Bitcoin can never become a safe-haven asset.

January 29th Federal Reserve nominated Waller + US tech stocks earnings reports, several companies significantly underperformed expectations, further plunging at low levels, Microsoft -10%, Tesla -3.5%. At this time, if you are an institution heavily invested in the crash of tech stocks, triggering a margin call, urgently needing cash to replenish positions, would you cut losses in the US stock market or take profits on the super explosive upside, or would you invest in the gold and silver ETF that Xiaohongshu has already entered? You have also seen the choices of institutions, which directly led to a 40-year unprecedented crash of gold and silver.

Why is watching messages not as good as watching candlesticks? The explosive rise of gold and silver is objective, and institutions in the market may sell gold and silver today due to underwhelming tech stocks, and tomorrow may sell huge profits from positions because of cash shortages elsewhere. The potential energy stored in candlesticks must be triggered by a reason, today it is this reason, and tomorrow it may be that reason.
So events are not always perfectly replicated, but candlesticks will always resonate. You all started learning to observe events, looking at Trump, Powell, geopolitical issues, CPI macro data, isn't it all to judge rises and falls? As a result, the number of events you learn to observe increases, the noise becomes louder, and the accuracy of judging rises and falls decreases due to various noises. It is better to return to the original intention and focus on watching candlesticks well.

Why can Bitcoin never become a safe-haven asset? Because it trades globally 24 hours a day, 365 days a year + is primarily priced driven by futures, with super liquidity brought by huge counterparties. Once Wall Street institutions enter, as long as any risks appear anywhere, when institutions lack funds, they check their other positions. Assuming normally there are no huge profitable positions in gold and silver, they look at other assets like real estate, equities, and post-market U.S. stocks, all lacking liquidity. Bitcoin has the best liquidity, and most Wall Street institutions have no faith in Bitcoin, so they sell it. To put it simply, if you finished gambling in Macau and had to pawn your watch and jewelry to get them back with a 20% fee, and couldn't borrow money from friends at 4 AM, when you have a card that allows you to withdraw cash from an ATM 24 hours a day with almost no fees, you would definitely choose to withdraw from the ATM. This ATM is Bitcoin.
This is also why Bitcoin has a strong correlation with Nasdaq after Wall Street entered in 2020. So you have been looking forward to Wall Street institutions taking over for so many years, only to find that inviting the gods is easy, but sending them away is difficult. They come to make money too.

#认知致胜