$BTC 🚨 HEADS UP: TURBULENCE AHEAD
All signs point to a U.S. government shutdown beginning at 12:00 $ETH AM ET tonight. $FTT Funding is set to expire, and prediction markets aren’t brushing this off—Polymarket and Kalshi are both signaling roughly an 86% probability that the lights go out.
If this happens, we’re not just talking politics. We’re talking about a macro data freeze—the kind markets really don’t like.
Here’s what could go offline almost immediately:
• Jobs Data (NFP): The Bureau of Labor Statistics would be impacted, meaning the monthly employment report could be postponed if the shutdown persists. No jobs data = no clear read on labor strength.
• Inflation Metrics (CPI & PPI): The teams responsible for collecting inflation data stop operating. That means uncertainty around whether inflation is cooling or heating up—exactly what markets hate most.
• GDP & PCE: The Bureau of Economic Analysis typically suspends activity during shutdowns. That puts GDP updates on ice and removes access to PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
• CFTC Positioning Reports: The Commitment of Traders report—which shows how institutions and large players are positioned—would pause, cutting off a key transparency tool.
• SEC Slowdown: Outside of emergency actions, most regulatory activity grinds to a halt.
• Deals Frozen: IPO filings and merger approvals are delayed. Capital markets activity stalls. If you’re waiting on a green light, expect silence.
Historically, each week of a shutdown tends to drag 0.1%–0.2% off GDP growth. But the real damage often comes from confidence erosion. The longer this lasts, the more markets price in uncertainty—and that “uncertainty discount” usually shows up in equities first.
This isn’t about panic. It’s about preparation.
I’ll be tracking developments closely and sharing updates as things unfold. I’ve spent a decade studying macro cycles, and I’ve consistently flagged major inflection points—markets don’t move randomly, even when the data disappears.
Stay alert. The absence of information can move markets just as fast as bad news
