Brothers, today is February 1, 2026. The event has been running for more than half a month. I have been watching the K-line and the leaderboard every day, and I feel like I'm about to become a professional task completer. BTC is still fluctuating in this broken range of 80k-85k; yesterday it touched a low of 81.5k. Glassnode's latest weekly report (data as of January 31) shows that the liquidity of LTH old coins continues to rise slightly, with a net displacement of about 80,000 to 100,000 coins in the last two weeks, and SOPR remains stable in the range of 1.05-1.1. On the ETF side, according to Newhedge's real-time tracking, there was a slight outflow in late January but it didn't crash, and institutions are still observing. The BTC I accumulated at the low point in 2021, my main position hasn't moved for years, and this floating loss looks really painful — but I absolutely do not want to cut losses at 80k because I firmly believe this is just a deep pullback in the middle of the bull market, not the start of a bear market.
It is precisely because mainstream coins are dragging in the short term that I have thrown almost all my spare time into Binance Square's Plasma (XPL) creator tasks. From January 16 when the activity launched until now, in 20 days, my points have risen from 0 to the top 120 globally (too many top players in the Chinese region, around the top 400); I once scored 92 points on a single post (the one comparing Plasma and SOL's scalability, with interactions breaking 1500). At first, I just wanted to earn some XPL at zero cost to buffer my losses, but the more I worked on it, the more I felt this project has substantial technology and is worth a heavy investment of effort. Today, I will thoroughly break down: latest on-chain data explaining why mainstream coins aren't rising; my true opinion after researching the technical details of Plasma as a dedicated stablecoin L1; and also discuss the pitfalls and insights from my 20 days of tasks—all are practical tips + personal gripes.
In-depth analysis of on-chain data for mainstream coins at the beginning of 2026: Why I think we still need to grind in the short term, but remain bullish long term.
Let's talk about BTC first (Glassnode + Arkham Intelligence data from February 1):
HODL Waves and LTH behavior: The proportion of old coins (1 year+) decreased slightly from 98% at the beginning of the year to 96.5%; in the past two weeks, old addresses have increased their transfers out, but the extent hasn't reached the level of the 2022 bear market. SOPR is around 1.05, indicating that selling is mainly profit-taking, not panic.
RSI and trading volume: Weekly RSI is still hovering in the 45-50 oversold zone; during rebounds, trading volume hasn't expanded, typical wash trading characteristics.
My personal opinion: I'm not panicking at all; this wave of adjustments is just institutions de-risking + macro fluctuations (the Fed's January meeting didn’t clarify a path for interest rate cuts). 80k is strong support (psychological level after the 2025 halving + ETF cost area); I guess it will hold for another 1-2 months; if ETF inflows resume at the end of the second quarter + new highs in US stocks, BTC will easily return to 100k+. My main position continues to HODL—last time in the 2022 bear market I held on, and this time I have even less reason to sell.
ETH:
Staking data: Latest over 37 million ETH staked (accounting for 30.5% of supply), but the annual yield has compressed to 2.8-3.2% (real-time from Lido and Rocket Pool). TVL fluctuates at high levels; RWA is hot but actual landing is slow.
Gas and L2 diversion: Main chain Gas averages 15-30 gwei; post-Dencun L2 is cheap but seriously fragmented.
My opinion: The ETH ecosystem is invincible, but in the short term, too much traffic is eaten by L2, and with such low staking yields, I'm not interested at all—locking up for 3% isn't as good as waiting for a big market. I think this year's ETH narrative relies on RWA and institutions, but we need to wait for BTC to rise first; if it holds 2800 in the short term, I will be satisfied.
SOL:
TPS testing and stability: Officially boasting 65k, but real peaks are 3000-5000 (Dune Analytics); no major outages since 2025, but historical shadows remain. TVL is around $12 billion, and active addresses dropped 10% after the Meme tide receded.
My opinion: SOL's speed is indeed appealing; I have a small position, but its centralization (concentration of validators) and past outages make me hesitant to fully commit. It feels like a high-beta coin; when the market doubles, it also drops hard—I personally prefer stable utility chains.
In short, I believe the core reason mainstream coins are collectively bottoming out at the beginning of the year is: digestion after the halving + institutions taking profits + macro uncertainty. In the short term, I see fluctuations, and while there is a probability of further declines, new lows won't happen. Long term, I am very optimistic—BTC could reach 150k, ETH 8k, SOL 300 dollars is all possible. But right now, I dare not move my coins; I really need low-risk side projects like Plasma tasks.
Plasma (XPL) technology in-depth analysis: My true opinion after researching for 20 days, why I believe it has dark horse potential.
Plasma is an EVM-compatible Layer 1 public chain, focusing on stablecoin infrastructure (official whitepaper emphasis: gas-free USDT/USDC transfers + customizable gas tokens). Total supply is 10 billion XPL, with a low initial circulation and a quarterly burning mechanism. Task pool has 3.5 million XPL, with activities ending on February 12.
I bought $500 worth of XPL to personally test on-chain interactions (transfers, swaps, simulated content tips); combined with the whitepaper and Dune dashboard, after in-depth research, my personal opinion is:
Scalability and gas mechanism (compared to SOL): Plasma uses a Bitcoin-anchored sidechain + ZK-proof verification, with a tested TPS of 2500-4000 (I personally stress-tested 10 concurrent transactions with a delay of <2 seconds). The key is gas-free stablecoin transfers—my USDT transfers had costs below $0.0001 for 50 transactions! Although SOL processes in parallel quickly, peak Gas can soar to 0.01-0.1 SOL; I was trapped during the last Meme craze. My opinion: Plasma wins in this aspect over SOL, especially in content/payment scenarios (creator tips, micropayments); low fees are the killer feature. I believe if the daily transfer volume of stablecoins breaks $1 billion, Plasma's TPS can easily exceed ten thousand, and the narrative will explode.
Incentive layer and EVM compatibility (compared to ETH): Plasma has built-in 'content + transaction mining,' with quality interactions directly producing XPL (task closed-loop amplification effect). Fully EVM compatible, zero cost for migrating Dapps. Compared to ETH's pathetic 3% staking yield, Plasma's task phase return rate (time for XPL) is calculated to be at least 50-100 times (zero capital). My opinion: The ETH ecosystem is fragmented, and creators are eaten by multi-layered cuts; Plasma directly allows content producers to earn coins, which is absolutely right in the era of AI explosion in 2026. I strongly believe in this narrative—original content requires real monetary incentives, combined with Binance's 300 million flow, the probability of the ecosystem taking off is higher than many L2s.
Security and utility (compared to BTC): Anchoring BTC security (sidechain inherits PoW), plus ZK verification, provides double protection. Utility crushes BTC's pure storage—stablecoin payments are a trillion-dollar track. My opinion: BTC is digital gold, and I will always hold heavily, but XPL has real use cases (I tested USDT cross-chain seamlessly); the potential to capture value in the medium to long term is significant. The risk is large supply + unlocking, but the XPL earned for free during the task phase is like picking up satellite storage for free.
Overall personal judgment: Plasma is not vapor; it is a stablecoin L1 with hard technology. I don't care about the short-term price slump (0.2-0.4 range); in the medium to long term, if the payment scenario lands + content ecology explodes, a 20x increase wouldn't surprise me—this is why I keep getting more into it.
20 days of task experience and quick ranking tips (all based on my pitfalls summary).
After the new regulations, high-quality articles exploded; I went from 0 to over 4000 followers, relying on in-depth technical posts.
Content strategy: Must be 2000+ words, with real-time data (Glassnode screenshots, Dune TPS, personal transfer records). My highest-scoring article of 92 points deeply analyzed Plasma's gas-free mechanism and included 10 images.
Quick tips for improving rankings: Global competition is low; I post 90% of my posts there; two posts per day (one long article and one short interaction); aggressively pull comments at the end (open questions + calls for likes). Ranking delays cause many to drop out, but I persisted and ranked up 50-100 points a day.
Personal gripes: The Chinese region is terrifying; top players post 10 articles of filler to boost interactions. I switched to global easily; I was just over 800 in the first 10 days, then adjusted to deeper technical content and skyrocketed.
Why it's worth the struggle: Not just XPL rewards, but it has greatly improved my technical analysis skills. During the mainstream coin bottoming period, this task is key to keeping my mindset stable.
Conclusion: My views on positions and ranking goals.
Main position 90% BTC/ETH, HODL until the reversal in the second quarter. Satellite fully invested in XPL (task earnings + small purchases). Goal: Top 50 before February 12, to reap big rewards.
I increasingly feel that Plasma is the biggest dark horse of 2026—hard technology, real scenarios, and huge dividends. What do you think? How long can BTC hold at 80k? Can Plasma's gas-free capabilities outperform SOL? Comment your on-chain views or task experiences, like and interact, and let's push for the front row together!
#Plasma $XPL L #BTC #ETH #SOL #CreatorTasks #BinanceSquare #StablecoinL1 #OnChainData #GasFreeCarnival @Plasma