Two weeks ago, when the price of Bitcoin was around 95k, I clearly pointed out in the weekly report (within the community) that the market at that time was essentially a high-level consolidation, and this consolidation leaned towards a bearish outlook in the trend structure, with a drop below 80k being just a matter of time. It turns out that this judgment was not alarmist. BTC fell below 80k as expected, and the trend this week is actually more significant than most people realize.
A seriously undervalued signal in the market is that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week moving average (MA100). This moving average has historically been an important boundary for distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. For a period of time, BTC has consistently operated above the MA100, and the breakdown this week indicates that the long-term trend structure has changed.
Looking back at October 2023, when the price effectively stood above the MA100 weekly line, I confirmed the start of the bull market from a technical perspective for the first time. Now, as the cycle reaches a similar time node, Bitcoin has reversed and fallen below this key support, which is highly consistent with the rhythm of past bull and bear transitions. This is not a coincidence, but a manifestation of the cycle itself.
At the same time, another important signal is emerging, the death cross is forming. This structure closely resembles the trend after the top in 2021, but the market sentiment has selectively ignored these warning signals. Personally, I began to doubt whether the bull market had ended when prices were still at historical highs, and now these judgments are being validated one by one.
The price has fallen so strongly below the long-term moving average, which is inherently destructive. This also confirms that the bearish flag structure I have repeatedly mentioned over the past few weeks has been completed. I believe that this week BTC is likely to close below the MA100 weekly line, then enter a new consolidation range, and continue to test the 70k level downwards.
It should be emphasized that 70k is not the final low point. Long before the price was still in the 115k–125k range, I predicted that the potential bottom of this cycle might fall in the 50k–60k area. Now, with the recalibration of model parameters and data updates, I have to revise this judgment.
The latest calculations show that the true cycle bottom is likely lower than previously expected. Considering the current macro environment, on-chain data, and technical structure, the range of 44k–54k is becoming a more logical potential bottom area. Given the current market sentiment, this conclusion may be hard to accept, but the data itself provides very clear direction.
In addition, there is another risk point that cannot be ignored: Bitcoin has already fallen below MicroStrategy's average holding cost (around $76,000). This means that the panic and uncertainty in the market are likely to be further amplified. A financial giant has publicly reminded Michael Saylor to consider taking profits at this stage, but his stance remains 'never sell.'
The problem is that MSTR's Bitcoin holdings heavily rely on leverage and credit structures, while its stock price itself is under continuous pressure. When BTC falls below its average cost line, the difficulty of maintaining the financing structure using stocks as collateral will significantly increase.
From the results, since the large-scale allocation of BTC began in 2020, MSTR's Bitcoin position has not formed effective realized gains on an overall level, performing even worse than the worst ETF products, and cannot be compared to the risk-free interest rate. This means that these positions are not supported by profit rolling but are completely exposed to price fluctuations.
This process is likely to become another profound lesson in Saylor's career, just as he experienced during the internet bubble. He paid a huge price for ignoring risks back then, and the current market is reenacting a similar story in another form.
What can be expected is that panic, noise, and misleading information will only increase. And what is truly important is always the trend itself.
