As the documents related to Epstein are gradually disclosed, combined with the rumors circulating in the market about a potential connection to Bitcoin, the emotional impact is inevitable. Even if these claims are ultimately debunked, the market often does not wait for facts to clarify, but instead prices in panic in advance, further spreading emotional selling.

From a rational perspective, these rumors may not necessarily have a substantial impact on the long-term value of Bitcoin. However, in the current fragile market structure, any negative narrative will be amplified and become a catalyst for accelerating the decline.

Considering both technical and cyclical perspectives, my judgment on Bitcoin remains clear and bearish. The price trend has fully validated the previous speculation about the formation of a cycle top, and the top judgment proposed in the range of 115k–125k is gradually being fulfilled by the market. Bitcoin has undoubtedly entered a bear market phase, and the original medium to long-term logic still holds.

Summary:

1. Bitcoin has effectively broken below the 100-week moving average, which is a historically significant key indicator, reaffirming the bear market structure.

2. Expectations for the bottom of this cycle have further shifted downward, with the new low range expected to fall between 54,000 and 44,000 dollars.

3. The price has broken below MSTR's comprehensive cost line of about 76,000 dollars, significantly amplifying market risk exposure and exacerbating panic and passive selling pressure.

4. The overall trend remains in a unilateral downward phase, and the cycle top judgment has been repeatedly validated by the market.

5. Strategically, I continue to maintain a bearish outlook, with no plans for profit-taking or reversal in the short term.

Overall, the current market is not experiencing "excessive panic" but is undergoing a systematic correction of previous overestimations, and the downward cycle has not yet ended.