In the last couple of days, many people's first reaction to the drop in gold prices is:
It's over, have we reached the peak?
But if you really stay in the market long enough, you will know —
A true top has never formed like this.
Let's talk about the market first.
This pullback in gold is indeed significant, once dropping below 4600 dollars, while silver dropped even more sharply, with a double-digit percentage decline. It looks like 'emotions have collapsed', but if you break it down, it seems more like a cooling off of speculative positions.
In the previous phase, precious metals rose too smoothly.
To what extent?
To the extent that going long almost requires no reason, to the extent that even a pullback seems redundant.
The most dangerous phase of the market is often not panic, but an excessive consistency.
Last Friday's news point was actually quite critical.
Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the Fed chair, and in the market's eyes, he has a label: somewhat orthodox, somewhat hawkish, disciplined.
When the news comes out, many short-term funds' first reaction is not to analyze long-term impacts, but to say:
👉 'Then I'll take a step back first.'
So what you see is not a trend reversal, but:
Leverage funds retreat
Short-term longs take profits
Speculative positions hit the brakes
This is also why silver has fallen much harder than gold.
Silver is inherently more of an emotional commodity, and once it starts deleveraging, it will definitely fall faster.
But as a trader, what truly matters is not whether it has 'dropped' or not, but—
After the drop, is the logic still there?
From this perspective, the story of gold has not actually been broken.
Why?
Because the underlying driving force of this round of gold is never just the Federal Reserve.
More importantly, it is the issue of US fiscal policy itself.
No matter who becomes the Fed chair, one thing is certain:
👉 US fiscal expansion will not stop.
Deficits, debt, and spending uncertainty cannot be solved just by changing a person.
This is also why many truly medium- to long-term funds did not panic and exit during this round of decline.
On the contrary, the views given by Standard Chartered, in fact, are very 'old-fashioned but practical':
Around $4650 is the range where re-adding positions can be reconsidered.
Note that what is mentioned here is not chasing the rise, but—
After a wave of speculation retreats, reassess the trend positions.
So if you look from the trader's perspective, the current gold price feels more like:
Short-term rise too fast → Correction
Emotions are too full → Cooling down
Leverage is too high → Squeeze
And not:
Logic collapses
Trend reversal
Longs fail
To put it more bluntly:
This wave of decline has killed 'those who shouldn't have rushed in so quickly', not gold itself.
The true watershed of the market is not in the gold price itself, but in the following several questions:
Will the US fiscal policy continue to spiral out of control?
Can risk assets stabilize again?
Can the dollar index continue to strengthen?
If the answers to these questions still lean towards 'risk is accumulating', then the story of gold is hard to end here.
Finally, a word for those still watching the market:
It's not about who can call the top or bottom accurately, but about who is comfortable with their positions, has a stable mindset, and can wait.
Market conditions will fluctuate, but trends are never in a hurry.
What you need to do is not predict every single candlestick,
But to confirm:
👉 When the market gives you another opportunity, will you still be present.#贵金属巨震 #下任美联储主席会是谁？ $BTC
