3 minutes to explain: Why I treat trading as a 'probability game', rather than guessing ups and downs

In 2017, I entered the market with 5000U.

In the same round of market, some people lost their homes due to contract liquidation, while my account remained stable and consistently increased, with a maximum drawdown never exceeding 8%.

It's not that I am better at reading candlesticks,

but that from the very beginning, I treated trading as a long-term positive expected value probability system, rather than a prediction game.

I don't rely on insider information, don't gamble on luck, and don't trust divine indicators,

I only do one thing: ensure that every trade is mathematically favorable for me.

Below are the three core aspects of this system.

1. Locking in profits with compound interest: Survive first, then amplify profits

For each trade, simultaneously set stop-loss and take-profit.

When the account profit reaches 10% of the principal,

immediately withdraw 50% to a cold wallet,

the remaining part is used for rolling positions, only using profits to bear fluctuations.

In a favorable market: compound interest continues to amplify

In an unfavorable market: at most, give back part of the profits, the principal remains intact

Core logic: It's the profits that collapse, not the principal.

2. Misaligned position building: Not betting on direction, only capturing volatility

I use a multi-timeframe structure:

Daily chart determines direction

4-hour chart determines range

15-minute chart executes entries and exits

Allow structural hedging for the same cryptocurrency:

A position: follow the trend breakout

B position: counter-trend ambush in the range

Single trade risk ≤ 1.5% of principal,

Risk-reward ratio ≥ 5:1.

The essence is not to bet on direction,

but to capture the 'premium' from market sentiment fluctuations.

3. Stop-loss equals huge profits: Use small losses to exchange for qualifications in major trends

My long-term win rate is about 38%,

but the risk-reward ratio remains stable at 4.5–5:1.

Even if most trades hit stop-loss,

as long as I capture a few trends,

the overall account still shows stable positive growth.

Stop-loss is not failure,

but the cost of entering the next opportunity.

Risk control discipline (determines whether you can stay in the market long-term)

Divide funds into 10 parts, using at most 1 part for a single trade

At the same time, hold no more than 3 parts

If you lose 2 trades in a row, forcibly stop trading

For every doubling of the account, withdraw 20% into low-volatility assets

In summary:

I do not pursue perfection in every trade,

I only guarantee: In a long enough sample, I will definitely win.

This upgrades trading,

from emotional speculation to probability engineering.