Bitcoin Weekly Analysis: #btc Is it going to $60k or $100k ?
Bitcoin is trading above the $75,000 level, which is a key weekly support level on the chart. This zone was retested recently, and how price behaves here will decide the next major move. On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has dropped below the 20W moving average and the 50W moving average. From here, there are two clear scenarios. SCENARIO 1 Bitcoin holds the April 2025 low and $75k becomes the bottom. For this scenario to play out, Bitcoin needs to hold the April 2025 lows and form a higher low.
What would that mean?
The long-term trend stays in place: higher highs and higher lows. The move down to $75k becomes a pullback, not a trend break. Now connect it to moving averages: The 20-week MA moving below or pressing into the 50-week MA is a bearish signal, yes. But it does not automatically mean a bear market. It can also be a late signal after a heavy correction. So Bitcoin needs to stop making lower lows in this $75k area. For the 4 year cycle to break, Bitcoin needs to reclaim and close above the 50W MA which is currently at $100,400. A clean weekly close above this area would signal that momentum has finally reset back in favor of bulls.
Most importantly, it needs to hold above the April 2025 low and start building weekly closes that show buyers are stepping back in.
SCENARIO 2
Bitcoin loses the April 2025 low and downside targets open up. This scenario is simple: If Bitcoin breaks the April 2025 low, the structure changes. At that point: The higher low structure fails. The $75k support no longer holds. If that happens, the $50k–$60k zone becomes the first downside area because it is a major psychological zone and a common reset range after a high-to-low correction. WHAT DECIDES WHICH SCENARIO WINS? 1. Does Bitcoin hold $75,000 on weekly closes or not? 2. Does Bitcoin break the April 2025 low or not? If $75k and the April 2025 low holds: Scenario 1 stays alive. If $75k breaks and the April 2025 low breaks: Scenario 2 becomes the higher-probability path.
