1. Core Conclusion Overview
- Project Positioning: Decentralized derivatives trading leader, self-developed L1+ on-chain order book, performance close to CEX, occupying **75%+** of the decentralized perpetual contract market share
- Token Economics: Total supply of 1 billion, 97% of fees for buyback/burn, deflationary drive; no VC allocation, community-led
- Current Market: Price around **$30.96**, Market cap around **$29.8B**, Circulation about 968 million
- Investment Rating: Medium to long-term buy (★★★★☆), Short-term watch/pullback buy (★★★☆☆)
- Core Target Price: Short-term **$35-40**, Mid-term **$50-60**, Long-term **$100+** (based on market share and revenue growth)
II. In-depth analysis of fundamentals
1. Project positioning and technical advantages
Hyperliquid is a Layer 1 blockchain designed for high-frequency trading, focusing on decentralized perpetual contracts and spot trading, aiming to create a 'Binance on-chain', providing a CEX-level experience while maintaining DeFi's transparency and non-custodial features.
- Core technology: self-developed HyperCore chain + HyperBFT consensus, over 100,000 TPS throughput, sub-second confirmation, zero Gas fee trading experience
- Product advantages: CLOB order book + proactive market making, liquidity depth comparable to CEX, smooth trading during market volatility
- Ecosystem expansion: HyperEVM compatible with EVM ecosystem, HIP-3 allows users to create custom markets, Builder Codes empower developers to build front-end applications
2. Team and governance
- Core team: 11 elite team members, founder Jeff Yan (Harvard graduate), no VC financing, completely community-driven
- Governance model: HIP proposal system, token holders vote to decide protocol upgrades, 31% of tokens airdropped to early users in November 2024
- Degree of decentralization: Verification nodes gradually open, currently about 4-16 validators, plan to further decentralize in 2026
3. Token economics (core value)
Parameters details
Total supply 1 billion tokens (fixed, no increase)
Distribution 38.888% community rewards/emissions, 31% genesis airdrop, 23.8% core contributors, 6% foundation
Unlocking team distributed linearly over 4 years, approximately 1.2M released each month, fully released in 2027-2028
Value capture 97% of protocol revenue used for HYPE buybacks/burns/distributions, creating continuous deflationary pressure
Utility governance voting, trading fee discounts (up to 40%), validator node staking, HyperEVM gas fees, collateral
4. Market performance and industry position
- Market share: Absolute leader in the decentralized perpetual contract track, highest share 75%, currently about 65%
- Trading volume: Average monthly $1.8 trillion in 2025, accounting for about 10% of the global derivatives market
- TVL: Approximately $4.4 billion, user asset scale of $6.2 billion, institutional traders account for 35%
- Revenue: Approximately $844 million in revenue for the whole year of 2025, forming a stable cash flow to support buybacks
5. Competitive landscape
Competitors strengths weaknesses
dYdX early leader, good liquidity, user experience declined after migrating to Cosmos, market share shrank
Aevo options product innovation lacks liquidity, market share <10%
GMX simple and easy to understand liquidity pool model, leverage limited, trading experience not as good as CLOB
Aster emerging challenger, low fees, ecosystem not yet mature, low brand recognition
- Core barriers of Hyperliquid: Leading technology performance, strong community foundation, no VC selling pressure, sustainable revenue model
6. Risk factors
- Short-term risk: 140,000 team tokens (approximately $4.62 million) will be unlocked on February 6, leading to short-term selling pressure; market share dropped from 80% to about 65%, competition intensified
- Long-term risk: Regulatory uncertainty (derivatives trading under the scrutiny of multiple countries); technical risks (smart contract vulnerabilities, network security); HIP-3 market development not meeting expectations
III. Investment suggestions and trading strategies
1. Investment cycle strategy
- Short-term (0-3 months): Mainly wait and see, accumulate positions in batches as it retraces to **$28-30 support level**, stop-loss at $25, target **$35-40**
- Medium-term (3-12 months): Actively allocate, increase positions on dips, focus on HIP-3 market growth and HyperEVM ecosystem development, target **$50-60**
- Long-term (1-3 years): Heavily hold, enjoy the value increase brought by protocol revenue growth and deflationary model, target **$100+, stop-loss $20**
2. Capital management plan
Funding level allocation ratio position strategy
Small funds (<$10k) 15-20% one-time position building, long-term holding
Medium funds ($10k-$100k) 20-30% build positions in 3-5 times, each time interval of 5-10% decline
Large funds (> $100k) 30-40% build positions in 6-10 times, combining technical indicators and fundamental events
3. Key trading signals
- Buy signal: Price retraces to **$28-30 support zone; HIP-3 open contracts exceed $1 billion**; daily trading volume continuously > $5 billion; HyperEVM ecosystem projects launch exceeds expectations
- Sell signal: Price breaks below **$25 support level; market share continuously below 50%**; significant negative regulatory policies; changes in core team members
4. Risk control measures
- Position limits: Single asset positions not exceeding 40% of total funds to avoid excessive concentration
- Stop-loss settings: Short-term **$25**, medium-term **$20**, long-term **$15**
- Hedging strategy: Can use ETH or stablecoins for partial hedging to reduce systemic risk
- Regular review: Monthly assessment of market share, revenue data, and technological progress, adjusting position ratios
IV. Summary and outlook
HYPE token relies on Hyperliquid's absolute leading position and innovative deflationary economic model in the decentralized derivatives field, possessing long-term investment value. Although facing unlocking pressure and market competition in the short term, with the expansion of the HIP-3 ecosystem and the empowerment of HyperEVM in the medium to long term, it is expected to achieve a doubling in market capitalization. Investors are advised to combine their own risk preferences to adopt a staggered position-building and long-term holding strategy to seize investment opportunities brought by the upgrade of Web3 financial infrastructure.
#Hyperliquid #HyperFund #HYPER $HYPE
