I. Core Conclusions Overview
- Zeroing Probability: Low (★☆☆☆☆), but high risk of significant value depreciation (★★★★☆)
- Key Support: Mainnet stable operation for 7 years, technical barriers (pioneering sharding technology), listed on mainstream exchanges, continuous development by the team, new RWA strategy
- Fatal Weaknesses: Slow ecological growth, intense competition, token inflation, prolonged low prices, declining community activity
- Investment Rating: Cautious Observation (★★☆☆☆), only suitable for investors with extremely high risk tolerance, not recommended for heavy investment
II. In-Depth Analysis of Zeroing Risks
1. Project Fundamentals and Technical Foundations (Core Anti-Zeroing)
- Project positioning: The world's first public chain to implement sharding technology on the mainnet, focusing on high throughput (TPS can reach thousands), dedicated to enterprise-level applications and RWA track.
- Technical barriers: x-shards modular sharding (2.0 upgrade), combining high throughput, linear scalability, and customizability; hybrid consensus mechanism (PoW+PoS) ensures security and performance.
- Mainnet stability: Since the mainnet launch in June 2019, it has been running stably for nearly 7 years with no major security incidents or downtime events.
- Team strength: Led by top academic experts from Singapore (CEO Dong Xinshu is a PhD from Oxford University), the core team is stable and continuously promotes technical upgrades and ecological construction.
- Investment background: Supported by well-known funds like NGC, early financing is sufficient, no risk of capital chain break.
2. Market position and liquidity (key to resisting going to zero).
- Current data: Price approximately **$0.0053**, market cap approximately **$109 million** (ranked #423), circulating supply approximately 20.59 billion, 24-hour trading volume approximately **$18 million**.
- Exchange coverage: Listed on major exchanges like Binance, OKX, Coinbase, with a rich variety of trading pairs and basic liquidity assurance.
- Network effects: Owns gZIL governance tokens, Staking mechanism (annualized about 5-8%), approximately 30% of tokens are staked, forming a certain locked scale.
- Ecological status: Although it is not as good as Ethereum, Solana, etc., it has foundational applications such as DeFi, NFT, and gaming. In 2026, it will shift to new strategies focused on RWA and compliant identities.
3. Key factors evaluating the risk of going to zero.
Risk dimension: Specific performance, zeroing impact, response measures.
Token economic risk: Total supply of 20.59 billion, inflation model, no destruction mechanism, continuous selling pressure. High. Adjust economic model in 2026, explore deflationary mechanisms.
Competitive risk: Ethereum, Solana, Aptos, etc., dominate the market, ZIL's technological advantages weaken. Extremely high focus on RWA sub-tracks, differentiated competition.
Ecological risk: Few DApps, low user activity, and developers migrating to other public chains. High. Launch developer incentive programs to reduce ecological adaptation costs.
Community risk: The Chinese community is shrinking, social media interaction rates are declining. Strengthen community operations, hold online and offline activities.
Regulatory risk: Enterprise-level applications and RWA face compliance pressures, and some regions restrict trading. Medium. Embrace regulation, develop vLEI compliant identity systems.
Price risk: Down 97.92% from the historical high of $0.2554, long-term sluggishness affects confidence. High. Enhance practical application value, reduce speculative attributes [__LINK_ICON].
4. Extreme scenario of going to zero (must meet all conditions).
1. The mainnet suffers a fatal technical attack, resulting in large-scale asset losses that cannot be repaired.
2. Core team collectively resigns, and the project completely stops development and maintenance.
3. All major exchanges simultaneously announce delisting ZIL, leading to liquidity depletion.
4. The community is completely disbanded, with no node operators or developers willing to maintain the network.
5. Encountered global regulatory bans, all trading and use cases are completely prohibited.
Currently, the probability of these scenarios occurring simultaneously is very low. The Zilliqa mainnet technology is mature, the team is stable, exchange support is high, and although the community is small, there are still active core members.
III. Value depreciation risk (more realistic threat).
Although the likelihood of ZIL going to zero is low, the risk of its value dropping significantly below $0.001 is very high, mainly due to:
1. Token inflation: Total supply of 20.59 billion, no maximum supply limit, continuous issuance dilutes value.
2. Market share shrinks: The competition in the high-performance public chain track is intense, and ZIL's technological advantages have been surpassed by Ethereum 2.0, Solana, and others.
3. Ecological development is not as expected: The RWA strategy is slowly being implemented, and enterprise-level customer growth has not met targets.
4. Low funding attention: Institutional funds are more inclined to invest in mainstream public chains like Ethereum, Solana, etc., and ZIL receives limited funding support.
5. Binance delists some trading pairs: News in January 2026 caused a short-term price drop, reflecting weak market confidence.
IV. Investment recommendations and risk control.
1. Investment strategy.
- Not recommended for ordinary investors: Risk-return ratio is unbalanced, better investment choices are available.
- Investors with extremely high risk tolerance:
- Allocation ratio: ≤ 5% of total funds, strictly control position.
- Entry timing: When the price drops to **$0.004 or below** and shows signs of stabilization.
- Stop-loss setting: $0.002 (close to historical low of $0.002396).
- Profit-taking target: $0.01-0.015 (immediately reduce positions after doubling).
2. Risk control measures.
- Diversified investment: ZIL holdings should not exceed 5% of total crypto asset investments.
- Regular assessment: Check project progress monthly (technical upgrades, ecological growth, team dynamics), and immediately stop-loss if expectations are not met.
- Focus on key indicators:
- Mainnet TPS and number of nodes.
- RWA project implementation status.
- 24-hour trading volume and exchange liquidity.
- Community activity (Discord, Twitter interaction).
3. Optimistic scenario triggering conditions.
If the following situations occur, ZIL may welcome a return to value:
1. Breakthroughs in RWA strategy, landing 3-5 influential enterprise-level applications.
2. Technical upgrades improve performance, attracting well-known DApps to migrate to Zilliqa.
3. Token economic model adjustment, introducing a destruction mechanism to reduce inflation pressure.
4. Attract large institutional investments or partnerships to increase market attention.
V. Summary.
The likelihood of ZIL going to zero is extremely low, as its 7 years of stable operation, sharding technology barriers, mainstream exchange liquidity, and a continuous development team form a solid foundation against going to zero. However, the risk of significant value depreciation is very high, mainly due to token inflation, slow ecological growth, and fierce market competition.
It is recommended that most investors stay away from ZIL and choose fundamentally stronger and higher growth potential crypto assets. If your risk tolerance is extremely high, it can only be regarded as a high-risk speculative target, strictly control positions and set stop losses, while closely monitoring the project's RWA strategy implementation and technical upgrade progress.
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