To be honest, what really feels off these past few days is not the price, but the way the market is speaking. The market has actually been falling for a while now; what could be sold was sold early, and what could explode has almost exploded. Yet, at this moment, all kinds of outrageous news started to emerge, like 'Binance sold 1 billion BTC', 'CZ denies the super cycle', 'Insiders have already run away'... If you look closely, the logic doesn't hold up, but some people believe it, and they believe it strongly.
Why? Because at this stage, the market is no longer looking for the truth, but for a 'reasonable reason for panic.' Prices have dropped longer than expected and refuse to rebound easily. People get worn out and lose patience, instinctively feeling: is there a bigger bomb yet to explode? So as long as the story is scary enough, even a fake screenshot can be taken as 'evidence.'
CZ's response this time is actually very straightforward. That screenshot from Polymarket does not exist; the so-called 7 million USD trading volume is fabricated; 'cancelling the super cycle' is an overinterpretation; he just said he is not as confident as before. To be honest, these words carry no value for discussion in a normal market, but placed in the current situation, they get infinitely magnified. It is not because the information is important, but because emotions need an outlet.
The most critical point is that 'Binance sold 1 billion USD worth of Bitcoin,' which is a typical product of emotion. CZ explained it very clearly: it is the users being sold, not Binance. Essentially, it is users trading and withdrawing funds; when there are changes in the exchange's wallet, it gets misconstrued as 'official dumping.' This kind of logic will only spread massively during a panic period. If you have truly traded and looked at on-chain data, you would know that changes in exchange balances, most of the time, have nothing to do with the platform's stance.
As for why the SAFU fund 'doesn't seem to have bought BTC,' it boils down to the same issue: everyone is too eager to see a 'certain action.' But truly experienced funds never make a big show of buying on-chain. Completing purchases in batches over 30 days, controlling the pace, and not creating shocks is actually the most professional execution logic. If you clearly see 1 billion USD sweeping goods on-chain, that is most likely a performance, not an investment.
Many people are still struggling with: is this 1 billion USD important? Does it have any effect on the price? I think from a trading perspective, it is not the focus at all. The current scale of Bitcoin determines that this amount of money cannot directly drive the market. Its true significance is only to tell the market one thing on an emotional level: it is not as dire as you think, at least order is still present.
At this stage, the most dangerous thing is not misjudging the direction, but being pushed by emotions. Seeing a piece of news makes you want to act; seeing others panicking makes you panic even more; trying to find a sense of security through frequent trading will only slowly wear you down. To put it bluntly, what this round of market really eliminates is not poor technology but poor patience.
CZ coming out to say these things is not to pump the market or shout long or short; he is just bringing some emotionally distorted things back to reality. Whether you listen or not is actually unimportant. What matters is that you need to understand that what is testing you now is not your judgment ability, but whether you can endure.
As the market reaches this point, the easiest mistake to make is to scare yourself. The rest, just leave it to time.#BTC何时反弹？ #加密市场回调 