Foresight News reported by The Block, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that the crypto market has been in a "complete crypto winter" since early 2025, but the current market is likely closer to the end of the downturn cycle rather than the beginning. Hougan pointed out that Bitcoin has dropped about 39% from its historical high in October 2025, while Ethereum has decreased by about 53%, with many other digital assets experiencing even deeper declines. He believes that the current stage can be compared to the crypto winters of 2018 and 2022, characterized by excessive leverage and early holders generally taking profits, with negative sentiment overwhelming incremental positives; despite Bitcoin peaking in October 2025, the actual market weakness began in January 2025, merely masked by strong ETF and digital asset treasury inflows. Without this support, Bitcoin's decline could approach 60%.
Despite the weak market, Hougan believes that the crypto ecosystem continues to make structural progress in regulation, institutional adoption, stablecoins, and asset tokenization. Looking back at historical cycles, crypto winters often end in despair and stagnation rather than reversing in excitement; the current sentiment resembles the characteristics of previous market bottoms. While the timing is uncertain, considering that this round of adjustments has lasted for more than a year, along with strong economic growth, the passing of regulatory bills, and signs of sovereign adoption of Bitcoin as potential positive catalysts, he believes the market is closer to recovery rather than further decline.
