Sudden Forecast: Will the Federal Reserve Pause Interest Rate Cuts in March? The probability of keeping rates unchanged is as high as 91%.
This data comes from the real-time collective expectations of global traders and will directly influence the US dollar exchange rate, US Treasury yields, US stocks, and even short-term trends in global assets like gold. For example, rising expectations for rate cuts usually support stocks and gold, while expectations for pauses or hikes tend to boost the US dollar.
Market expectations shift dynamically. Before the March meeting, keep a close eye on these key events that could sway the probabilities:
Especially the inflation report (CPI) and non-farm payrolls data. If the numbers come in hot again, the chance of a pause could climb even higher; if they cool off significantly, it might boost cut expectations.
Public comments from the Federal Reserve Chair and other voting members are a key way to gauge any shifts in policy thinking.
Overall, the market has settled on a pretty clear baseline for the Fed's March move — holding rates steady. This suggests a stable monetary policy setup in the near term, with any big asset price swings more likely tied to evolving views on the longer-term path (like May or June).
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