Why isn't $XRP mooning?
That's the question every trader is asking right now. The facts seem bullish: the SEC lawsuit is settled, spot ETFs are live, and institutional money is flowing in. Yet, XRP is trading around $1.90, roughly 50% below its July 2025 high of $3.65
The disconnect is the real story. Based on current data, here's a straightforward breakdown of the bullish case versus the on-chain reality.
📈 The Bullish Narrative vs. The On-Chain Reality
• Regulatory Victory ✅ | Profit-Taking Sell Pressure 💥
The long legal overhang is gone. However, the settlement created a natural exit for early investors, leading to sustained profit-taking and a steady overhang of selling pressure.
• ETF Inflows ✅ | Weak Relative Demand 💥
Spot XRP ETFs have seen over $1.3 billion in inflows. This is positive, but demand pales in comparison to Bitcoin/ETH products and has been insufficient to absorb the selling.
• Utility Growth ✅ | Narrative Competition 💥
RippleNet and RLUSD (Ripple's stablecoin) are growing. But in a market chasing AI and DeFi narratives, "payments" is a hard story to tell, causing capital to rotate away from XRP.
🎯 The Actionable Setup: Key Levels to Watch
The immediate technical picture is crucial. As of February 2026, XRP is testing critical support after recent market-wide selling.
Key Support (Hold for Bullish Structure):
· Immediate: $1.54 - $1.60 – This is the recent battleground. A failure here risks a test of deeper support near $1.38.
· Critical: $1.50 – A decisive break below could trigger further downside momentum.
Key Resistance (Reclaim for Recovery):
· First Hurdle: $2.03 – Veteran traders identify this as the level XRP must reclaim to shift the bearish structure and signal a potential relief rally.
· Major Target: $2.35 - $2.88 – Breaking above this zone is needed to challenge the cycle high.
🤔 Your Move
The long-term outlook from institutions like Standard Chartered .
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