The digital asset market is going through a challenging phase that asset manager Bitwise has officially labeled as "a comprehensive winter." While many still hope this is just a healthy correction, the actual data shows that we have been deep in the cold since January 2025. That's the reality; facing this truth is not meant to cause panic, but to help us develop a better trading strategy.
The nature of the current Crypto winter
According to Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, the market is repeating the scenario of 2022 with severe drops due to excessive leverage and enormous profit-taking pressure. Bitcoin has fallen about 39% from the peak in October 2025, while Ethereum has lost more than 50% of its value. Smaller altcoins have been even worse off, with many tokens losing 3 to 4 times their value.
The thing is, the characteristic of winter is the "indifference" to all good news. Even when the regulatory framework in the US progresses or Wall Street opens up, prices still can't seem to rise. This happens when the selling force from the bears completely overwhelms all buying efforts from retail investors.
Institutional money and the "mask layer" of ETFs
One extremely important point that you need to note is the role of ETFs. Throughout 2025, these funds absorbed over 740,000 Bitcoins, providing tens of billions of USD in price support. This "smart" money has created a mask layer, hiding the collapse of coins focused on individual users.
While Bitcoin, supported by institutions, only declines moderately, tokens lacking the backing of financial institutions have faced declines of 60% or more. The thing is, this shows a deeply divided situation in this new financial "civilization."
When will winter end?
Based on historical cycles like 2018 and 2022, Bitwise estimates that the Crypto winter usually lasts about 13 months from peak to trough. If counting from January 2025, we are currently in the final stages of the downturn. Winter typically does not end with excitement or long green candle columns immediately. Instead, it ends quietly when everyone who wants to sell has sold out, and the bulls begin to accumulate amidst the fatigue of the crowd.
Advice for fellow investors
Although the current sentiment is quite gloomy, Bitwise asserts that the core story of Crypto remains unchanged.
Observe the exhaustion of the selling side: Pay attention when the selling trading volume gradually decreases and the market starts to consolidate.
Focus on assets with intrinsic value: Prioritize coins that have legal support and funding from major institutions like ETFs.
Discipline is strength: The thing is, don't let discouragement cause you to miss the gold accumulation phase right before a strong recovery.
In summary, winter is about to pass, and the most persistent will be the ones to greet the dawn the earliest. You should prepare your knowledge and a cool head to accompany the market! #Colecolen