The little non-farm payroll is kicking off tonight! The market has waited so long, is one number enough?
❗️❗️Attention! Tonight at 21:15, the much-anticipated U.S. employment data is finally about to unfold — the U.S. January ADP employment figures, known as the 'little non-farm', will be released first!
Why is this worth paying attention to?
It's simple, during the absence of official U.S. data (non-farm reports) due to government shutdowns, the market has been like walking in the dark.
Tonight's ADP data will be the first real flashlight that can help us roughly see whether the U.S. job market in January is cold or hot.
A bit of background:
· This data is released by the private institution ADP, and while it cannot fully represent the official non-farm data, it has always been an important leading reference indicator.
· Due to the previous U.S. government shutdown, a series of critical data including non-farm and initial jobless claims have been postponed, with the release time to be determined. The U.S. Department of Labor just announced a full return to work today and is working overtime to reschedule.
So, what will tonight's numbers bring?
1. Sentiment litmus test: If the data is particularly strong or particularly weak, it may instantly change the market's expectations for Federal Reserve policy, causing volatility.
2. Trailer effect: People will interpret it as a 'trailer' for the official non-farm report on Friday (or later), adjusting their positions in advance.
3. Directional guidance: After a series of chaos including the Federal Reserve's leadership change and government shutdown, clean economic data might provide the market with a temporary, fact-based anchor.
Tonight, will you stay up to watch the data, or choose to lay flat? Do you think this 'little non-farm' is more likely to bring surprises or shocks?
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