WHY THE JAPAN BOND "DUMP" THREATENS US MORTGAGE RATES
If you think a bond sell-off in Tokyo doesn’t affect your monthly bills in the States, think again. The 6:50 PM ET data drop is a "canary in the coal mine" for US borrowing costs. 📉
📍 THE HIDDEN LINK: $G
Japan is the #1 foreign holder of US Treasury debt (owning over $1.1 trillion). When Japanese banks "dump" these bonds to bring cash home to stabilize their own crashing market, it creates a massive "Supply vs. Demand" problem in the US.
📉 THE DOMINO EFFECT:
Japan Sells: Huge blocks of US Treasuries hit the market simultaneously.
Prices Drop, Yields Rise: As bond prices fall, the interest rate (yield) on those bonds automatically spikes to attract new buyers.
Mortgage Connection: US Mortgage rates are mathematically tied to the 10-Year Treasury Yield. When that yield jumps because Japan is selling, mortgage rates follow suit almost instantly.
🚨 THE REAL-TIME RISK:
We are already seeing US 10-year yields test the 4.30% level today. If tonight’s report confirms a massive exit by Japanese investors, we could see a "gap up" in US mortgage rates by tomorrow morning.
⚠️ THE BOTTOM LINE:
The "Japan Dump" isn't just a rumor for traders—it’s a direct threat to the US housing market's recovery. If the world’s biggest lender stops lending, the cost of the American Dream just went up.
#MortgageRates #RealEstate #USTreasuries #JapanCrisis #Economy2026