If you’re feeling worn down by this market, you’re not alone.

Over the last 3 months, most altcoins are down 30–50%, with many extending losses even further over a 6-month window. Drawdowns of that magnitude test conviction, patience, and risk management, even for seasoned market participants

This cycle feels brutal.But so did the last one.

2022 Felt Like the End

In 2022, crypto didn’t just correct, it capitulated.

The collapse of Terra/LUNA, aggressive Fed tightening, and finally the FTX bankruptcy created a perfect storm. Liquidity evaporated, trust broke, and sentiment reached extreme pessimism.

At the lows:

  • Total crypto market cap (excluding BTC and stablecoins) declined ~80%

  • Many quality projects were written off as “dead”

  • It genuinely felt like the experiment had failed

  • And yet — that moment marked the bottom.

  • Over the following two years, that same segment of the market rallied ~400%.

The lesson is uncomfortable but consistent: Markets often feel the worst right before conditions start improving.

Volatility Is Not a Bear Market

Another common mistake is equating volatility with a broken cycle.

Even in strong bull markets, Bitcoin frequently experiences 20–40% pullbacks. These moves are uncomfortable, but historically normal.

A reminder from 2017

  • Bitcoin rallied to ~$20,000

  • Along the way, it suffered nine separate corrections of over 30%

  • None of those corrections ended the cycle

  • It’s the cost of participation in a reflexive, liquidity-driven market.

What Happens If History Rhymes?

If this cycle’s peak-to-trough drawdown ultimately mirrors past patterns, it’s reasonable to expect:

  • 6–8 more months of consolidation

  • Choppy price action

That wouldn’t be unusual, and it wouldn’t invalidate the broader cycle.

Either outcome is survivable — but only with proper expectations.

Historically, cycles don’t end because of corrections.

They end when three things break at once:

  • Liquidity

  • Confidence

  • NarrativeNarrative

As long as those pillars remain intact — even under stress — volatility alone is not enough to end a cycle.

Final Thought

Every cycle feels obvious in hindsight.

None of them feel obvious while you’re living through them

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